The Morning Vibe

28/09/12 -- The overnight electronic market sees soybeans 2-3 cents weaker, with corn down 8-10 cents and wheat 2-4 cents easier.

The trade is nervous ahead of today's USDA stocks report, and possibly with good reason. Given the advanced rate of this year's harvest then the chance of old crop 2011/12 being overstated with some new crop included is probably pretty high.

Corn in particular looks wobbly. It could get the biggest boost from new crop inventories being mixed in with old crop, just as it did last year. Add to that yesterday's piss poor weekly export sales of less than 400 tonnes, and all of a sudden the future doesn't look quite so rosy for corn.

Beans are also under pressure for similar reasons, although yesterday's robust weekly export sales of 800 TMT takes the US 2012/13 marketing year-to-date commitments to 77.35% of the USDA's projected total for the entire three week old season!

At the rate of 800 TMT/week, the US will hit the USDA's full MY target of 28.7 MMT worth of exports a little over 8 weeks from now.

Wheat is bumbling along OK, but exports plus outstanding sales for that only come to 39% of the USDA's full marketing year target compared to the normal pace of 57%.

Algeria have just bought 700 TMT of what will probably be French wheat in their largest purchase of the season so far. Taiwan has bought 50 TMT of US wheat in a tender.

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange say that corn planting in Argentina is around 10% complete. Farmers in the north of the country have started harvesting wheat, they added.

In Brazil's top wheat state of Parana, which grows around half of the national crop, wheat harvesting is said to be around 40% done with farmers saying that so far they are pleased with the yield and the quality of the crop.