EU Wheat Closing Comments - Tuesday

30/10/12  -- Nov 12 London wheat closed GBP1.00/tonne higher at GBP209.25/tonne, with Nov 12 Paris wheat EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR262.25/tonne.

Wheat crops around the world keep shrinking. Informa have cut their estimate for Australia's output this year to 21.2 MMT from 23.5 MMT previously, which is 1.8 MMT less that the USDA and a decline of 28% on last year.

Reuters are reporting that heavy rain in Southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state could cause  up to a third of the wheat crop there to be lost.

The IGC say that Ukraine's 2012 wheat crop will only total 13.5 MMT this year, a drop of 39% on 2011. Informa meanwhile pegged the corn crop there at 18.8 MMT, versus  22.8 MMT in 2011 and the USDA's current estimate of 21 MMT.

Russia's grain harvest is drawing to a close at 98% complete, producing 72.2 MMT so far, versus a final 2011 total of 95.4 MMT. Wheat accounts for 39.6 MMT of that against 56.2 MMT in 2011. The barley harvest has produced 14.5 MMT against 16.9 MMT lasy year, whilst the corn crop currently stands at 5.6 MMT off 70% of the planted area.

SovEcon say that Russia will export only 1.2-1.5 MMT of wheat in November, versus 2.5 MMT in October.
Germany sold 200 TMT of wheat to Iran. French wheat exports are picking up as the Black Sea runs dry. Egypt bought 180 TMT of mostly Argentine corn in a tender.

Prospects for 2013 do look brighter, but they are unfortunately still a long way away. Ukraine will plant 6.6 million hectares of winter wheat, against 6.3 million last year. Russia meanwhile will increase it's area from 16.0 million hectares to 16.8 million, according to its Ag Ministry.

Ukraine's Ministry says that 82% of the nation's winter grains have emerged, and that 54% of those are in good condition, and only 10% in weak/thinned condition versus 16% a year ago.