NFU Peg UK Wheat Crop At Just 13.25 MMT

10/10/11 -- The NFU estimate the UK wheat crop at just 13.25 MMT this year, the lowest output since 2007 (when the planted area was 10% less at 1.8 million hectares). Yields of 6.7 MT/ha would be the lowest since 1988.

One of the great things about keeping a blog like this is that I can sift back through previous year's records and remind myself of what happened last year (and indeed before that).

You know what it's like, things stick in your mind, but after 12 months and Christ knows how much beer (generously donated by you dear reader) your memory can sometimes be a little bit fuzzy.

Anyway, a quick check back reveals that this time last year the NFU estimated the UK wheat crop at 14.7 MMT. A crop that is now generally accepted to have actually been around 15.26 MMT.

Helpfully, I did some further looking back into the past at the time, and discovered that the NFU had a bit of a history of under-estimating the UK wheat crop by around half a million tonnes versus the official account of events, having done so in both 2010 and 2009 (I was clearly less diligent in 2008 and didn't made a note of their number back then).

It would appear then from what we know now they did exactly the same in 2011 also.

Of course you could say that the NFU are in fact the kiddies with their finger on the UK wheat button. You maybe wouldn't get too much opposition to the suggestion that in a darkened room full of arses and elbows, DEFRA would be the ones stumbling around in a state of total confusion.

Either way, the NFU seem to be offering us a reliable guide to what the official UK wheat production estimate will finally prove to be this year, and 13.75 MMT is the magic number.