Chicago Close - Thursday

21/02/13 -- Soycomplex: At day one of the USDA Outlook Forum US 2013 spring soybean plantings were estimated at 77.5 million acres versus the USDA baseline projection of 76.0 million and 77.2 million in 2012. Production in 2013 was estimated at a record 3.405 billion bushels, up 390 million from 2012. The USDA also estimated the average soybean price in 2013/14 at USD10.50/bushel. Stocks estimates will be released tomorrow. Separately the USDA announced 130,450 MT of US soybeans sold to unknown – 75,540 MT of old crop and 55,000 MT of new crop. There's a Brazilian port strike set for tomorrow and another lined up for next week, which will only serve to further increase port congestion there. Vessel line-ups waiting to load beans are already said to be double versus this time a year ago. Lanworth Inc yesterday cut their 2012/13 Argentina soybean harvest outlook to 49.6 MMT versus 51.6 MMT previously. The USDA has production pegged at 53 MMT. The same company also pegged Brazilian soybean production at 81 MMT versus 80.3 MMT previously. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange pegged Argentine production at 50 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 500-900,000 MT. The IGC estimated the global 2012/13 soybean crop at 269.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 271.0 MMT. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.87 3/4, up 5 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.70 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD437.30, up USD3.70; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 51.31, down 76 points.

Corn: The Outlook Forum pegged US corn plantings at 96.5 million acres versus the USDA baseline projection of 96.0 million and 97.2 million in 2012. Production was forecast at 14.53 billion bushels versus a USDA baseline projection of 14.435 billion and the 2012 crop of 10.780 billion. The 2013/14 average corn price was estimated at USD4.80/bushel. Corn use for ethanol production was increased to 4,675 million bushels from 4,500 million in 2012/13. The Energy Dept reported the weekly ethanol grind rose 8,000 barrels/day to 797,000 bpd. Taiwan bought 60 TMT of Argentine corn for April shipment. Oman bought 20 TMT of Argentine corn for April shipment. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange estimated the Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT versus the USDA's 27 MMT. The IGC estimated the global 2012/13 corn crop at 850 MMT versus their previous estimate of 845 MMT. The IGC estimated this year's Indian corn crop at 20.6 MMT versus a previous estimate of 18.0 MMT. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 150-300 TMT. There are said to be 59 ships are waiting to load grain at the Brazilian port of Santos versus 29 ships this time a year ago, and 82 ships waiting to load at Parangua versus 31 ships a year ago. Port workers at Santos begin a wildcat strike tomorrow. Fund selling in corn was estimated at a net 8,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.90 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.85 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents.

Wheat: News of a major winter storm sweeping across the Plains and Midwest was enough to get wheat on the defensive, with Southern Nebraska expected to receive 12-18 inches of snow today, according to Martell Crop Projections. The Outlook Forum placed US 13/14 US all wheat production at 2.1 billion bushels versus a USDA baseline projection of 2.19 billion and the 2012 crop of 2.269 billion. The 2013 US wheat acreage was estimated at 56 million acres versus a USDA baseline projection of 57.5 million and 55.7 million in 2012. The 2013/14 average wheat price was estimated at USD7.00/bushel. Separately the USDA announced the sale of 110 TMT of US soft red winter wheat sold to unknown – 55 TMT old crop and 55 TMT new crop. Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated their 2012/13 wheat crop at 9.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 10.1 MMT. The USDA still have the crop at 11.0 MMT. Output in 2011/12 was 15.5 MMT, so if the Ministry are correct then production is down almost 40% this season. Iran bought 180 TMT of Australian wheat for April shipment. Iraq was said to have bought 300 TMT of the same origin. Tomorrow's weekly export sales will be important for a wheat market that is looking tired. Trade estimates are for sales of 350-600,000 MT versus last week's total of 706,300 MT. Given all the recently rumoured business to Russia, China and Europe it will be interesting to see if any of that turns up in this week's report. Funds were judged to have been net sellers of around 6,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day, adding to their already significant short-holding. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.21 1/4, down 17 1/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.57 1/4, down 20 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.06 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents.