The Morning Vibe, Oh Betty...
14/06/13 -- Like half the trade I've been away at Cereals 2013 this week, so apologies for the lack of blogging activity. You should be thankful that I dragged myself out of bed at 7 o'clock to write my Chicago report and then sit in the bar like Billy No Mates at 7pm surrounded by a load of drunken Jock machinery dealers knocking back double Jack Daniels - 50 pee for a wee splash of coke, dinnae bother wee lassie, just make it a treble - to write my London/Paris wheat report. Dedication, that's what it is. And money, of course.
By the way, the opening gambit of "where's the dog?" whenever I go anywhere is starting to wearing a little bit thin. It's a bit like going to see Michael Crawford in Phantom of the Opera and shouting out "Oh, Betty, Jessica's done a whoopsie on the carpet" if you get my drift.
He's a millstone around my neck that bleedin' thing. I'm thinking of doing away with the buy Nogger a beer button and replacing it with a "send me some money via PayPal now or I'm having the dog put down" button. I'd never have to work again if I had one of those!
With the USDA numbers still ringing in our ears, Goldman Sachs seem to have turned as bearish as a very bearish thing on a double decker bus full of bears on it's way to the zoo, judging by this report on Agrimoney this morning: Goldman Sachs slashes corn and soy price forecasts.
Here they talk of corn getting down to USD4.25/bu and beans USD10/bu "should its most likely scenario - of a 13.6bn-bushel corn harvest and 3.37bn-bushel soybean crop – materialise."
If that doesn't make you feel bearish yet then maybe the news that the barley harvest is Russia is underway 10 days early in the southern districts of Krasnodar and Stavropol will tip the scales?
No? OK then, what about the news on Reuters that early barley yields in Russia are 5.28 MT/ha versus 2.98 MT/ha at the start of the harvest last year. That's a 77% increase by my calculations. Yikes!
Also on Agrimoney I read that our old mates the funds are pulling out of agricultural commodities, here: Hedge funds may be retreating from ag commodities. I never liked them anyway, as you probably know. Maybe that will be sufficient to tip the scales?
No, you want more? OK punk, Argentina are forecasting a wheat crop there of "about 16 MMT" this year, their agriculture minister says on Reuters. That would be up almost 78% on last year and potentially herald a return to the good old days for the hand-balling South American strike monkeys, maybe propelling them back into the top 6 wheat exporting nations. Hey gringo, I have wheeeeat for you, lookie, lookie, I make spethial price, see is beautiful wheeeeat, no? Very cheap...
The only caveat to add to most of this is that the USDA, Goldman Sachs and the Argy government do know their arses from a hole in the ground don't they?