EU Wheat Lower On The Day, Higher On The Week

12/07/13 -- EU wheat finished lower on the day, but still managed to post weekly gains. Paris rapeseed took another mauling however, with Aug 13 finishing EUR5.25/tonne lower at EUR392.50/tonne, the lowest close in the contract's history.

Nov 13 London wheat ended the day GBP1.25/tonne lower at GBP169.75/tonne and with Jan 14 also closing down GBP1.25/tonne to GBP170.95/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR1.50/tonne to close at EUR197.75/tonne. For the week Nov 13 London wheat was up GBP3.20/tonne and Nov 13 Paris wheat gained EUR3.00/tonne.

The German Farm Cooperatives Association estimated the wheat crop there at 24.07 MMT, up 7.5% on last year. That's higher than the USDA's forecast of 23.70 MMT from yesterday and marginally more than the 24.01 MMT that they estimated a month ago.

They forecast the German rapeseed crop at 5.58 MMT, a leap of over 16% on last year. Again that is higher than the USDA's 5.45 MMT and the 5.43 MMT that the Association predicted in June.

The German winter barley harvest is now underway, 10-14 days later than normal, and will total 8.23 MMT, also more than 16% up on last year. Spring barley production will fall however to 1.88 MMT, they said. Germany's corn harvest will also decline, down 17% to 4.55 MMT due to lower plantings and too much spring rain, they added.

The Italian soft wheat crop will fall 12% this year to fractionally under 3.0 MMT, according to the local Ag Ministry. Reduced plantings and lower yields due to too much rain are also to blame, they said.

The French winter barley harvest is also underway, if late, at 5% complete (this time last year when the harvest was early 50% of the crop had already been cut), say FranceAgriMer. Corn planting is 98% complete, and presumably won't now get any higher than that.

Winter wheat crop conditions were unchanged from a week ago at 69% good/excellent. Winter and spring barley good/excellent both fell one point from last week to 66% and 71% respectively. Corn good/excellent was unchanged from last week at 56%, although that's well behind 75% this time a year ago.

A farmer survey conducted by a UK company on behalf of the German Kleffmann Group, who specialise in agricultural market research, estimated the UK winter rapeseed area that will make it through to harvest at only 545,000 ha. Abandonment rates were as high as 27% in Yorks/Humber and the East Midlands, and averaged 22% nationally, the survey found.

They say that a lot of the lost area would be left fallow, although a significant number intended on switching to spring barley, with others opting for other crops (including spring rapeseed). The USDA estimated the UK all rapeseed harvested area at 610,000 ha yesterday.