Chicago Consolidates Ahead Of Long Weekend

29/08/13 -- Soycomplex: The market drifted mostly a little lower in light consolidation from recent gains heading into a 3-day weekend which could prove to be pivotal for beans. Has the recent USD1.50 price rise put in a post harvest jitters top, or are we only pausing for a breather before moving higher? Whether the forecast weekend rains turn up may answer that question. The current precipitation outlook calls for about 85% coverage of 1/2 inch or more for almost the entire Midwest. Things are also seen turning much cooler by Labor Day on Monday. MDA CropCast cut their US soybean production forecast by 162 million bushels to 3.052 million versus 3.255 million from the USDA. In metric terms that's 83.08 MMT, up 9.3% compared to last year. They increased their forecast for Brazilian soybean production in 2013/14 by 720 TMT to a record 86.2 MMT, which sits comfortably in the middle of the range of other analysts recent estimates. China sold almost 80% of the 496 TMT of soybeans on offer in today's government auction. said that China's soybean stocks are at the highest levels of the year so far at 6.3MMT. US weekly soybean export sales came in at net reductions of 3,200 MT for old crop and net sales of 868,700 MT, at the top end of trade ideas of sales of around 500-800 TMT. Unknown destinations (404,700 MT) and China (229,000 MT) were the main buyers. Actual shipments have all but dried up at 76,000 MT this past week. Sep 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.30, down 3 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.68 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD467.40, up USD4.10; Sep 13 Soybean Oil closed at 43.78, down 53 points.

Corn: For corn, the USD5/bu mark is looking key. Having closed below that level for the first time in a front month since October 2010 in late July, we've only closed above USD5/bu twice since - on Monday and Wednesday this week. We've now also closed below the USD5/bu mark twice this week. The seasonal trend says that the lows of the year in corn aren't normally set until the back end of the year. Weekend weather and Syrian developments could be crucial to where we go from here. MDA CropCast cut their US corn production forecast 292 million bushels to 13.544 billion versus the USDA's 13.763 billion. In metric terms that's a loss of 7.4 MMT to 343.9 MMT. That would also still be a record crop by some distance however and a rise of 32.5% versus last year. They raised Brazil's 2013/14 corn crop by 2.7 MMT to 73.6 MMT, but dropped Europe's by 1.1 MMT to 58.4 MMT. Ag Resource estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.819 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 14.13 billion, using a yield estimate of 155 bu/acre. Taiwan's MIPA bought 60 TMT Brazilian corn for Nov 1-15 shipment. Weekly export sales came in at net reductions of 15,000 MT in old crop and net sales of 673,800 MT for new crop against trade estimations for sales of 300-600 TMT. Only 376,500 MT/week was needed to hit the USDA export forecast for 2013/14. The usual crop progress report due Monday will be delayed until Tuesday due to Labor Day. It will be interesting to see how much this week's heat has accelerated crop maturity. As of last Sunday only 70% of the crop was at the dough stage versus 79% normally and only 23% of the crop was dented versus 43% normally. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.97 1/4, down 7 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.81 1/2, up 3/4 cent.

Wheat: Without much of a storyline of it's own wheat remains clinging on to corn's coat tails. If corn can't hold above USD5/bu then it's difficult to imagine CBOT wheat trading at USD7/bu plus. US wheat remains priced out by EU and Black Sea wheat into non-traditional homes. Even so, weekly export sales of 551,300 MT were in line with trade expectations of 400-600 TMT. Regular buyers Mexico (137,800 MT) and Japan (131,100 MT) were the biggest takers, although new kid on the block Brazil (88,900 MT) also featured. As of last week’s report, sales of only 370,000 MT were needed to reach the USDA's export estimate. Egypt's wheat tender purchase of yesterday found Black Sea sellers at around USD20/tonne cheaper than US offers, and that is before much more expensive freight is added on. Egypt's supplies minister estimated his country's 2013/14 wheat imports at 5.0-5.5 MMT, well below the USDA's projected requirement of 9 MMT. Yesterday's order takes their public tender purchases for 2013/14 so far to just under 1.4 MMT. The supply minister said that Egypt now has enough wheat bought to last them through to January. South Korea bought a few medium sized cargoes of US and Canadian wheat. SovEcon raised their Russian 2013/14 wheat production forecast from 50.5 MMT to 51.7 MMT, which would be an increase of around 20 MMT versus last year's crop. They peg wheat exports at a relatively modest 14.5 MMT versus 11 MMT in 2012/13. MDA CropCast raised their EU soft wheat production forecast by 300 TMT to 134.9 MMT, up 6.6% on last year. They cut their Argentine wheat crop estimate by a similar amount to 11.7 MMT, still a 15.8% increase on 2012/13 mind, due to dryness and cold temperatures. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.41 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.01, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.24 1/4, down 10 cents.