Nogger's Blog

26/09/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on fund selling/repositioning ahead of Monday's USDA stocks report. Weekly export sales for beans were robust at 2.8 MMT, with China accounting for 2.3 MT of that total. Around 2 MMT of that was already reported business from last week though. That takes cumulative sales for 2013/14 to 69% of the USDA target for the season already. The Chinese government sold around half of the 500 TMT of soybeans that they offered at auction today. Cargill are said to be temporarily shutting down two crushing plants - one in Kansas City and one in Wichita due to a lack of beans following the slow to get going harvest. Constant rains are leading to production and quality downgrades for soybean and sunseed crops in Russia and Ukraine. The weak Brazilian real means that the cost of producing soybeans in Mato Grosso state is 27% higher this year than it was 12 months ago, says Dr Michael Cordonnier. Rain is in forecast for parts of South America starting Sunday. Soybean planting is on hold for now until they arrive. China are said to have crushed 45 MMT of soybeans this calendar year so far (to Sep 20), up 6.3% on a year ago. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.16 3/4, down 5 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD13.18 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD416.40, down USD2.20; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.79, down 3 points.

Corn: The corn market was marginally higher in light short-covering ahead of Monday's stocks report. Weekly export sales were 640,100 MT, which was at the top end of trade expectations of 400-700 TMT. The IGC cut their forecast for the world corn crop by 2 MMT to 943 MMT - still comfortably a record crop though. Ukraine's crop was raised to 28 MMT and China's cut to 210 MMT. They said that Chinese corn imports will be lower than forecast last month due to substitution of sorghum into feed rations. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013/14 corn imports at 5.5 MMT versus 3.0 MMT last year, although 1.5 MMT less than the USDA currently predict. COFCO estimated China’s 2013/14 DDGS imports at 3.0 MMT and estimated China’s 2013/14 sorghum imports at 1.5 MMT. The Ukraine PM said that the country's corn exports would rise from 14 MMT in 2012/13 to 18 MMT in 2013/14. Their corn harvest is ongoing but making slow progress under heavy rains. The nation's total grain harvest is said to be 71% complete at 36 MMT. The PM said that total grain production could reach 60 MMT this year, up 30% versus 46.2 MMT a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated the nation's late grains harvest (mostly corn) at 28 MMT. The Russian corn area is almost 13% harvested, producing 1.5 MMT to date. South Korea's Nofi bought 55 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for December delivery in preference to corn. Early US corn yields continue to come in better than expected. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.56 3/4, up 2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.69 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was higher for the fourth session in a row on continued short-covering ahead of Monday's stocks report. The USDA will also report on US wheat production on Monday. The IGC raised their world wheat crop forecast for 2013/14 by 2 MMT to 693 MMT and cut consumption by 1 MMT to 687 MMT. Ending stocks were increased 4 MMT to 180 MMT. In Brazil's Parana state the local Ag Ministry estimated their 2013/14 wheat crop at 1.7 MMT and said that harvesting was 25% complete. There's continued talk that Brazil is shopping for US wheat. Weekly export sales came in at 620,200 MT versus the 550-850 TMT expected. China (171,400 MT) was the top buyer. Brazil took 74,800 MT. There's also talk of further Chinese interest in US hard red spring wheat and/or Canadian and Australian wheat. Argentine farmers played down the damage potential from frost earlier in the week. The Saskatchewan crop harvest is 71% complete versus 60% on average at this time, average to above average yields are being seen. Rusagrotrans said that Russia's 2013/14 wheat ending stocks would rise from 8.9 MMT in 2012/13 to 11.7 MMT, including 3.0-3.5 MMT of intervention stocks. The Russian government are expected to begin buying for their depleted intervention fund in a fortnight. Morocco are tendering for 175 TMT of wheat on the local market. They are also looking for 373 TMT of US and 400 TMT of EU soft wheat. Algeria's grain crop is now only seen at 4.2 MMT versus last year's production of 5.1 MMT, spurring increased imports. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.78 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.27, up 9 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.24 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents.