Nogger's Blog

21/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Nov 13 beans managed to push through USD13/bu and hold - a level said to be likely to trigger producer selling in the midst of harvest. The USDA reported 235 TMT of US soybeans sold to unknown for 2013/14 shipment. Weekly export inspections of 59.325 million bushels were supportive too. Chinese customs data showed that they imported 4.7 MMT of soybeans in September, 5.4% less than a year ago, of which 3.6 MMT came from Brazil - a 52% rise on a year ago. They imported no soybeans last month from the US at all. Rapeseed imports came in at 233 TMT, a 26% rise on 12 months previously. Jan/Sep soybean imports are now 45.75 MMT, up 3% versus 2012, of which 27.5 MMT came from Brazil - a 24% rise on a year ago. The US only accounted for less than half the total shipped from Brazil - 12.5 MMT, a 24% decline on Jan/Sep 2012. Jan/Sep rapeseed imports are at over 2.5 MMT, a 24% rise on the same period in 2012. It looks very much like Chinese soybean imports, whilst growing, are not expanding at anything like the breakneck pace that the USDA has pencilled in for 2013/14 - partially at the expense of increased usage of much cheaper rapeseed. The Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade estimated India’s summer oilseed output at 16.9 MMT, up 11% from a year ago due to the best monsoon rains in over 10 years. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean crop at a record 89.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 88.2 MMT, the USDA's 88.0 MMT and 82.0 MMT in 2012/13. They estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean exports at a record 45 MMT versus 42.5 MMT from the USDA. They said that as of Oct 18 17.8% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been planted, sowing good progress from 6.7% a week previously. CNGOIC said there will be no Chinese soybean auction this week as the government look to build reserves. After the close the USDA said that the 2013 US soybean harvest was 63% harvested, a bit better than many expected (and versus 11% in the last report from the end of September). Good/excellent was 57% versus 53% at the end of September. Both should add a bearish tone to trade in the morning. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.03 1/4, up 12 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD13.00 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD415.70, up USD5.60; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.64, down 4 points.

Corn: Corn closed towards the top end of another narrow daily trading range, supported by export inspections of 32.272 million bushels, which were above the 19-29 million expected by the trade. Chinese customs data shows that they imported virtually no corn at all last month - just 1,537 MT, down 99.6% from a year ago. Cumulative 2013 calendar year to date imports are down 61% on a year ago at 1.6 MMT. Weekly ethanol production came in at 869,000 barrels/day versus 868,000 bpd last week and the near 900,000 bpd needed to hit the USDA target for the season. Argentine corn planting is only 19% done versus 34% a year ago. Central Argentina needs more rain, but only light rain is in forecast for the next 7 days. There's talk of a larger, possibly much larger, switch into soybeans and away from corn the the official figures currently show. There's also talk of a similar trend developing in Brazil, and also of growers cutting back on the costs by using less expensive but lower yielding seed and reducing their fertiliser inputs in an effort to cut production costs. It may well be therefore that the current USDA estimates for a Brazilian corn crop of 72 MMT, and one from Argentina of 26 MMT, in 2013/14 are finally proven to be too high. The Russian 2013 corn harvest is 37.3% complete at 4.8 MMT. Ukraine's corn exports are picking up now that the harvest is in full swing. They exported 354 TMT of corn in the week through to Sunday, versus 152 TMT in the week prior. After the close the USDA said that the 2013 US corn harvest was 39% compete versus 53% normally, although probably a bit further advanced than many had expected and compared to 12% in the last such report at the end of September. Good harvest weather for the week ahead should enable some good further progress to be made. Corn at the mature stage was up to 94%, compared to the 5 year average of 95%. Good/excellent ratings came in at 60% versus 55% at the end of September. Reports of better than expected yields remain a generally common theme. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.44, up 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.56 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat took a tumble from near 5-month highs after it was revealed that the Argentine Ministry forecast for a wheat crop there of only 8.8 MMT this year was incorrect. In a refreshingly frank admission, the Under Secretary at the Ministry said that there had been an "honest mistake" made and that a correct, and higher, revised estimate would be released at an unspecified date. Ukraine wheat was the cheapest offered in the Iraqi tender. In what also looks like it could be a mistake one cargo was offered at USD326 CIFFO, versus the next best Ukraine offer at USD344.12 CIFFO. Romanian wheat at USD348.35 was priced at the next best level, followed by Russian (USD355), Hungarian (USD355.38), Australian (USD362.50) and Canadian (USD369.50). The best German offer was USD376 and US wheat was the "also ran" at USD394 (all prices CIFFO). In other news, weekly US export inspections offered no support at 20.582 million bushels versus 27.219 million the previous week. The USDA reported 79% of the US winter wheat crop for the 2014 harvest had been planted, bang in line with normal. Good/excellent crop conditions are an impressive 65% with only 4% of the crop rated poor/very poor. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 718.5 TMT of wheat in September, with 95%, or 684 TMT, of that total coming from the US - more than double the volume of US wheat they imported in the corresponding month in 2012. As far as year to date wheat supplies go, China have imported 58% of their Jan/Sep requirements from the US (1.643 MMT). Again this is more than double the volume imported from the US in the same period in 2012. Canada is their second largest supplier at 624 TMT. followed by Australia (543 TMT). Russia's grain harvest is said to be 88.9% complete at 86.8 MMT, including 52.4 MMT of wheat off 93.2% of the planned area. Winter plantings are complete on 12.5 million hectares, 76.3% of the original target. Ukraine's winter grain planting has now been completed on 7.02 million hectares, 86% of the original target. That includes 5.9 million hectares of wheat (88% of plan). Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.99 3/4, down 6 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.61 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.51 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents.