EU Grains Rise On Bargain Hunting

02/10/13 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, recovering some of yesterday's losses, as the market sees bargain-picking with US corn levels at 3-year lows and soybean values posting 19-month lows yesterday.

The market closed with Nov 13 London wheat settling GBP1.70/tonne firmer at EUR156.60/tonne and Jan 14 up GBP1.75/tonne at GBP158.75/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat rose EUR2.50/tonne to EUR192.50/tonne whilst Nov 13 Paris rapeseed was up EUR7.50/tonne higher at EUR368.25tonne.

Not everybody thinks that the lows are quite in just yet though. Rabobank predicted a CBOT Q4 of 2013 low of USD4.35, along with a Q4 soybean low of USD12.25. They see Paris wheat falling to EUR178 by the end of this year and EUR170 by next summer.

Russia's grain harvest is now 77.2% complete at 78.0 MMT, including almost 80% of the wheat crop at 48.4 MMT. The trade is trying to decide if the fact that official estimates of a grain harvest of 90 MMT and a wheat crop of 50 MMT are almost certainly too low, or the fact that plantings for the 2014 harvest are severely subdued is the most important factor.

Russian grains are only said to have been planted on 7.9 million hectares, 48.4% of the government's plan, and 35% down on year ago levels. Various private estimates now see Russian winter plantings 15-20% down on expectations, with those in Ukraine 20-30% lower.

Rusagrotrans said that the continued wet weather may trim 2014 Russian grain production by 2.5-5.0 MMT.

There's no problem with grain production this year in Canada though, They only problem they have is reaching for superlatives to describe this year's crop.

Stats Canada will report on production prospects on Friday. They are expected to peg the all wheat crop at 32.9 MMT versus 30.56 MMT previously and 27.21 MMT a year ago. They are also said likely to increase the size of the Canadian rapeseed crop to a record 16.6 MMT, from 14.73 MMT previously and 13.87 MMT last year.

Rabobank peg the Canadian wheat crop even higher at 33.98 MMT.

The wheat harvest is underway in Western Australia state, around 2 weeks earlier than normal. Some parts of the state, such as Albany, where the wheat crop is still at the grain filling stage, are said to be likely to see possibly exceptional yields this year.

The EU proposing higher import taxes on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel saw the rapeseed market sharply higher today.

Ukraine said that winter grain plantings are 37% complete at 3.055 million ha, including 42% of wheat (2.77 million ha). Winter OSR is now 90% planted at 831k ha.