The Rapeseed/Meal/Oil Conundrum

03/10/13 -- News yesterday that the EU is proposing to raise anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia (where 90% of EU imports come from) was cited as being responsible for Paris rapeseed rising more than EUR10/tonne at one point before settling EUR7.50/tonne firmer on the most active front month Nov 13.

The proposal will now go before the EU Anti-dumping Committee on October 22-24, and if passed should certainly be good news for rapeseed demand. It should also be bullish for rapeseed oil prices, which have been on their arse lately due to over-supply and lack of demand. Note soyoil in Chicago closed at a more than 3-year low last night.

What this shouldn't be bullish for though is rapemeal prices, which is why the hike in values of meal at home and on the continent yesterday is somewhat confusing. Effectively banning biodiesel imports from these countries. Bullish for domestic seed demand. Prices go up. Tick. Need more oil. Tick. Bearish for palm oil and soyoil. Tick. Prices of those will go down. Tick. Produce more rapemeal here. Meal prices go up. Eh? What's that all about? So, if anyone wants to avail themselves of some rapemeal at today's Fancy Dan prices then give me a call. Hurry, buy now before prices go down! Erm, I mean whilst stocks last, obviously.

What a conundrum. I feel a bit like conundrum specialist and 2011 rear of the year Carole Vorderman, except she hasn't got a beard, obviously. My arse has won prizes too you know. Seriously. Oh, yes. Well a (singular) prize. I once came second in a sexy bum competition in some club in St Helens.  In around 1982 it was. Of course it was fixed. I would have, or indeed should have won it, but I refused to offer "extras" to the pig in a wig that was doing the judging. Another one of life's little disappointments.