EU Grains Mostly Lower, London Wheat Bucks Trend

13/11/13 -- EU grains closed mostly a little lower. That said, Nov 13 London wheat endeed GBP0.40/tonne firmer at GBP164.40/tonne, whilst Jan 14 was up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP164.65/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat settled EUR0.75/tonne easier to close at EUR201.50/tonne.

Feb 14 Paris rapeseed fell EUR0.50/tonne to EUR380.00/tonne, whilst Jan 14 Paris corn closed EUR2.25/tonne lower at EUR173.50/tonne.

The latest customs figures show that the UK imported 245 TMT of wheat in September, with 71 TMT coming from France, 51 TMT from Germany, 29 TMT from Canada and even 23 TMT from little Estonia. That takes the UK's wheat imports for the 2013/14 marketing year so far (Jul/Sep) to 829 TMT, up more than 40% on the same period in 2012/13. I thought imports were supposed to be slowing?

Exports meanwhile were very tardy in September at only 10.5 TMT, taking Jul/Sep wheat exports at only 44 TMT versus 289 TMT in the same period last season.

Russia's grain harvest is 93.6% done at 92.8 MMT in bunker weight, including 53.8 MMT of wheat off 97.4% of the planned area. The Russian Grain Union said that they expect the final clean weight harvest to total 90 MMT, with 50 MMT of that wheat. They said that they expect Turkey to be their largest wheat buyer in 2013/14 taking 4.2 MMT.

ProZerno Group said that Russia exported 1.82 MMT of wheat last month, a decline of 23.5% on September, although 15% more than in October last year. Egypt was the top home, followed by Yemen and Turkey in third.

Tunisia issued a tender for 92 TMT of optional origin hard wheat for Dec/Jan shipment.

The French Farm Ministry trimmed slightly their estimate for the soft wheat crop there, down 125 TMT on previously to 36.7 MMT, a 3.4% rise on last year. FranceAgriMer went slightly higher, estimating this year's crop at 36.96 MMT, up 3.8% on last year. They see exports to non-EU destinations rising 13.1% in 2013/14 to 11.2 MMT. Exports inside the EU are forecast to fall 3.3% to 6.9 MMT.

The French Farm Ministry also cut their forecast for this year's corn crop by 300 TMT to 15.2 MMT on lower than anticipated yields.

Lanworth forecast the EU-28 wheat crop for next season at 146 MMT, a 2% rise on this year and the second largest ever. They see China's crop also 2% higher in 2014 at a record 124 MMT.

Chinese think tank CNGOIC forecast the country's wheat imports at 8 MMT this season, the most since 1995, although that's below the USDA's estimate of 8.5 MMT released on Friday, and the 9.5 MMT that the latter predicted in September. They said that China has so far bought 4.5 MMT of Australian and US wheat for delivery this season. They've also bought French and Canadian wheat in lower volumes.