EU Grains Lower Again On Buoyant Crop Outlook

19/05/14 -- EU grains closed lower, with London wheat extending its decline to ten sessions in a row. Fresh news was scarce, but the path of least resistance remains lower.

May 14 London wheat ended down GBP1.45/tonne at GBP150.25/tonne, and new crop Nov 14 London wheat closed GBP1.10/tonne lower at GBP147.900/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR197.25/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR176.00/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne to EUR357.50/tonne.

Concerns about Ukraine have gone on the back burner, the market is now looking at a very good European crop that is both well advanced of normal in maturity and in significantly better condition than a year ago.

Export levels out of the FSU are also well ahead of where they were at this point in 2013.

Ukraine said that it had exported 30.5 MMT or grains so far this season, up 43.2% on a year ago. That total includes 19.1 MMT of corn, 8.8 MMT of wheat and 2.3 MMT of barley.

Russia said that it had exported 23.7 MMT of grains to May 14, a 60.3% increase on a year ago. That includes 17.3 MMT of wheat, 3.7 MMT of corn and 2.4 MMT of barley.

Russia’s Ag Ministry said that Russia’s 2013 grain crop was 89.3 MMT versus 68.7 MMT in 2012.

Despite the large level of exports, the Ukraine Ministry said that grain stocks there as of May 1 were still up 12% on a year ago at 9.1 MMT, including 3.4 MMT of wheat, 4.3 MMT of corn and 900 TMT of barley.

Egypt said that it had bought 2.5 MMT of new crop wheat on the local market, out of a total domestic purchase target of 4 MMT. They said that this year's harvest will amount to 9 MMT versus 8.5 MMT a year ago.

Turkey is shopping for 190,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jul/Aug shipment, along with 100,000 MT of optional origin barley for Jun/Jul shipment.

UK crop conditions look stupendous. A very good dose of weekend sunshine, followed by the forecast bout of heavy mid-week rains, will further add to crop health.

Crop conditions in France are also ahead of year ago levels, according to FranceAgriMer on Friday.

Things have also perked up considerably in Germany after some early season concerns.