EU Grains End Narrowly Mixed

30/09/14 -- EU grains closed narrowly mixed to end the month and quarter, with the London market remaining under pressure from the burgeoning supply of global feed wheat and the looming record large world and EU corn crops.

The day ended with Nov 14 London wheat down GBP1.00/tonne at GBP107.70/tonne, and with Nov 14 Paris wheat closing down EUR1.00/tonne to EUR152.75/tonne. Nov 14 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne lower to EUR138.00/tonne and Nov 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR1.25/tonne to EUR318.75/tonne.

However bad your average UK or EU arable grower thinks things are, spare a thought for your counterpart in Ukraine, particularly in the rebel held Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Agritel report that ex farm milling wheat in Lugansk is only fetching $157/tonne, which is around GBP97/tonne sterling equivalent. Corn prices are even worse, at $92/tonne - that's around GBP57/tonne! For comparison purposes they say that milling wheat in the Poltava region, which is a similar distance away from Odessa port as Lugansk, are $186/tonne (around GBP115/tonne), with corn at $122/tonne (GBP75/tonne).

Ukragroconsult forecast Ukraine's 2014 wheat harvest at 21.62 MMT in clean weight, up from 21.0 MMT previously. They also increased their estimate for 2014/15 wheat exports from 9.5 MMT to 10 MMT. They said that Ukraine had exported 4.4 MMT of wheat in the first quarter (Jul/Sep) of the new marketing year.

Russia began its intervention purchase program today, buying 19,555 MT of grain split 54% wheat and 46% barley.

FranceAgriMer said that French wheat stocks as at Sep 1 were up 3% on year ago levels, and that barley stocks were 13% higher. That's roughly in line with production increases this year which sees the French wheat crop up 2% at 37.4 MMT and barley output 11% higher at 11.5 MMT.

ADM Germany (formerly Toepfer) forecast the UK wheat crop at 16.58 MMT, a 39% rise versus last year.

They also estimated Germany’s 2014 corn crop at 4.8 MMT versus 4.0 MMT a year ago, with Romania's up to 10.8 MMT from 10.4 MMT in 2013.

Turkey released a tender for 200 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Oct/Nov shipment. Russian wheat may be the favourite to win that business.

Egypt tendered for wheat late in the day, with the results expected tomorrow afternoon. US wheat won their last tender.