Chicago Markets Post Decent Gains, Although News Mixed
20/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans finished higher in a mixed news session. Whilst weekly exports of more than 3 MMT were a marketing year high, fresh sales of less than 500 TMT were a marketing year low. The USDA did however also announce 140,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 delivery under the daily reporting system, having confirmed a similar sale of 125,000 MT yesterday. Meal export sales of 265,700 MT were better than expected. Thailand bought 260,000 MT of South American soymeal. South Korea bought a cargo of Brazilian meal for Jan shipment. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014/15 Brazilian soybean crop at 92.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He was also unchanged on the Argentina bean crop at 55.0 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated the 2014/15 soybean planted area at 20.1 million ha versus a previous estimate of 20.3 million. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.20 1/2, up 15 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.28, up 16 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $370.80, up $0.40; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.67, up 16 points.
Corn: The corn market reversed all of yesterday's losses and then some. Weekly export inspections of 908,700 MT were better than what the market was looking for (400-700,000 MT). Actual shipments though, as alluded to on Monday, of only 386,900 MT were a marketing-year low. Cumulative sales are 46% of the USDA's target for the season versus the average pace of 49%. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014/15 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT, and the Argentine crop at 21 MMT, both are unchanged from his previous estimates. Israel bought 147,000 MT of optional origin corn (most likely to be of Black Sea origin) for Jan-April shipment. The Ukraine corn harvest is wrapping up. APK Inform estimated the country's 2014/15 corn exports at 18.1 MMT versus the current USDA estimate of 16.5 MMT. The Russian corn harvest is now 92% complete at 11 MMT. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the EU-28 corn crop by 0.5 MMT from a week ago to 66.5 MMT, a 12.5% rise compared to a year ago, although not as high as many other trade estimates - some of which are 70 MMT or more. Japan’s use of corn in animal feed in September was 45%, the same as in August but up versus 41.8% a year previously. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, up 10 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.86 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market, which had been lower to mixed in overnight trade, closed strongly higher at the finish once the US daytime markets sprung into life. It's hard to put a definite reason behind today's rally. "It’s hard to argue the market was oversold, but it had become pretty easy for the short position holder," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Weekly export sales of 361,700 MT didn't startle anybody that's for sure. Meanwhile actual shipments of 178,400 MT were down 43 percent from the previous week and 39 percent below the prior 4-week average. Egypt's GASC bought just the one cargo of French wheat for late December shipment in their tender. Saudi Arabia released a tender for 330,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for Feb-March shipment. Japan bought 123,192 MT of a mixture of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in a routine Thursday tender. Taiwan bought 82,050 MT of US milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment in a tender. Nothing much out of the ordinary there. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for next year's Canadian wheat crop by 0.9 MMT to 28.6 MMT, a 3.25% increase compared to this year. Russia said that they'd now harvested 110 MMT of grain off 97.2% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 62.2 MMT of that total, also off 97.2% of the intended area. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.02 1/4, up 16 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.84 1/2, up 13 cents.