Chicago Corn And Wheat Fall, But Beans Post Small Gains

07/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans did their best to shrug off the influence of lower corn and wheat markets to close with small gains. The trade is fully focused on Friday's WASDE report from the USDA. Trade estimates for that see US soybean harvested acres at 82.915 million, with yields averaging 47.2 bu/acre and production at 3.908 billion bushels. The USDA had acres at 83.549 million, yields at 47.1 bu/acre and production at 3.935 billion bushels a month ago. Demand for beans remains strong, trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are between 700,000 MT and 1.2 MMT. A Reuters survey puts the average guess for 2015/16 world ending stocks at 84.50 MMT, around 0.5 MMT lower than previously. Friday also brings CONAB's first estimates for Brazilian 2015/16 production prospects. "The weather in Brazil thus far during the spring planting season has been more conducive for planting in southern Brazil than in any other region of the country. Generally, the first soybeans in Brazil are planted in central Mato Grosso, but that has not been the case thus far this planting season," said Dr Cordonnier. He says that Parana in the south is already said to be 23% planted, up from 13% a week ago. Planting in the leading soybean state of Mato Grosso though is more retarded, waiting for rains, making the national average around 2-3% complete. It's still very early days though. He estimated Brazil's 2015/16 soybean crop at 99.0 MMT, unchanged from previous forecast and 2 MMT higher than the current USDA prediction. Rain is in the forecast for Mato Grosso in the 3-7 day time frame, however the full 15 day forecast generally indicates rains of only 40-60% of normal for this time of year for the state. South Korea's NOFI bought 55,000 MT of soy meal from Argentina or Brazil for April shipment and were said to have cancelled a tender to buy 12,000 MT of rapeseed meal due to high prices. Thailand cancelled a tender to buy soymeal for May-June shipment. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.91, up 3 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.95, up 3 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $305.20, up $3.40; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.42, down 9 points.

Corn: The market closed around a couple of cents lower. In the midst of harvest, US corn is struggling to break through the key $4/bu mark. The weekly Energy Dept report showed that US ethanol production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 950,000 bpd last week, a fairly modest rise given that last week's total was the second lowest weekly volume since the beginning of May. Friday's USDA report is expected to show US harvested corn ares at 80.826 million, down from 81.101 million previously. Yields are seen averaging 167.1 bu/acre versus 167.5 bu/acre in September. Production is pegged at an average of 13.504 billion bushels versus 13.585 billion last time. A Reuters survey predicts the average 2015/16 world corn ending stocks estimate to slip to 188.75 MMT from 189.69 MMT in September. NYMEX crude got within touching distance of $50/barrel today, it's best level since Jul 20, but failed to hold. US DDGs exports were reported at 1.28 MMT in September, down a little from 1.37 MMT in August but 18.7% above those of September 2014. That was also the third highest monthly total on record. In Brazil, full season corn planting is in full swing in the south, with 50% of the crop in the state of Parana already in the ground, according to Dr Cordonnier. He says that 98% of what has been sown so far there is rated to be in good condition and 2% in average condition. Full season plantings in the state are however "expected to decline 18% to just 444,000 hectares, which is the smallest acreage since records have been kept (over 40 years)," he notes. Meanwhile, in Rio Grande do Sul the full-season corn crop is 55% planted and that acreage in the state is expected to decline 9% this year, he adds. As with beans, planting in the largest full season corn state of Mato Grosso is behind schedule at only 2% complete versus 5% normally at this time. Celeres estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 summer corn crop at 30.9 MMT, down 0.3% from a year ago. They see Brazil’s 2015/16 second corn crop area expanding to 9.64 million ha, up 4.4% from a year ago. CONAB will give us their Brazilian production numbers for 2015/16 on Friday. Weekly export sales tomorrow are estimate around 550,000-750,000 MT. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $4.06 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The market closed the best part of 10 cents lower, more or less reversing all of the previous session's gains. This may have been linked to profit-taking following the recent move higher, and some position squaring ahead of Friday's USDA report, not that this is expected to be a "game changer" for wheat. Traders are looking for the USDA to cut 2015/16 US ending stocks to 828 million bushels in that. A Reuters survey says that the USDA will cut 2015/16 world ending stocks to 224.75 MMT from 226.56 MMT last month. Either one would still be a record though. The Russian Ag Minister said that this year's grain harvest would top 100 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.3 MMT a year ago. Domestic demand is seen at 70 MMT, leaving an export potential of 30 MMT. In the first week of October Russia's grain exports were said to be 840 TMT, of which 660 TMT (78.5%) was wheat. Season to date grain exports are reported at 12.38 MMT, with 9.37 MMT of that (75.7%) being wheat. Widespread talk remains of Russian winter grains being sown into unfavourably dry soil, although exactly the same was the case this time last year. In southern Russia it is said that spring rains are a more important yield determiner, and we are a long way off knowing how they will turn out. Reasonable rains are in the forecast on some weather models over the next 15 days. The region is also turning colder. Agritel say that the first frosts of the winter are now starting to appear in parts of southern Russia and Ukraine. If the forecast rains do materialise then there's still time yet for spring plantings in the region to reach record levels, they say. Algeria is in for a nominal 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment, but usually buys far more than it tenders for. France will be hoping for some success in that one. The Philippines seek 50,000 MT of wheat for March-April shipment. Japan seeks 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley in a tender for Jan-Feb shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a fairly modest 175,000 to 375,000 MT. Brazilian wheat quality declining because of wet conditions in the south of the country. With Argentina's crop expected to be sharply lower in 2015/16 then US wheat could get a look in for export to Brazil later in the season. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.08, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.32 3/4, down 8 cents.