The rain in Spain falls mainly just in time - southern Med harvest just 50 days away
MD of Gleadell Agriculture, David Sheppard says with no major weather probems evident yet, there could be problems building for the coming harvest.
"Rain has arrived in Spain, just in time, although more is needed and EU/Eastern Europe/Black Sea regions all appear satisfactory with the only exception being Turkey, which is drought affected," he says.
"There is still some way to go before the new harvest starts in earnest - but in the southern Mediterranean we are probably 50 days away from harvest starting, and a year ago the weather pattern was much drier."
But Mr Sheppard says political interference/influence continue to be of more concern than the weather.
"Argentina is still beset by difficulties with strikes and government export registration problems which makes execution of contracts extremely difficult, whilst export quotas and export taxes are varied almost daily in Russia and the Ukraine," he says.
"There is no doubt that 'if' crops continue to develop well, these problems will ease and governments will be able to breathe slightly easier regarding food security and inflation."
New crop prices, he says, continue to represent good value for farmers - and buyers are mostly absent.
A mildly bearish USDA supply and demand report for oilseeds, which suggested higher than expected ending stocks has been largely eclipsed by the continuing logistical issues in South America caused by the fallout from the farmers' strike and the speculation of a sharp increase in US export demand replacing existing commitments from Argentina, says oilseeds trader Jonathan Lane.
"There is currently around a £20 gap between old and new crop prices and at some stage these need to meet," he says.
"Rain has arrived in Spain, just in time, although more is needed and EU/Eastern Europe/Black Sea regions all appear satisfactory with the only exception being Turkey, which is drought affected," he says.
"There is still some way to go before the new harvest starts in earnest - but in the southern Mediterranean we are probably 50 days away from harvest starting, and a year ago the weather pattern was much drier."
But Mr Sheppard says political interference/influence continue to be of more concern than the weather.
"Argentina is still beset by difficulties with strikes and government export registration problems which makes execution of contracts extremely difficult, whilst export quotas and export taxes are varied almost daily in Russia and the Ukraine," he says.
"There is no doubt that 'if' crops continue to develop well, these problems will ease and governments will be able to breathe slightly easier regarding food security and inflation."
New crop prices, he says, continue to represent good value for farmers - and buyers are mostly absent.
A mildly bearish USDA supply and demand report for oilseeds, which suggested higher than expected ending stocks has been largely eclipsed by the continuing logistical issues in South America caused by the fallout from the farmers' strike and the speculation of a sharp increase in US export demand replacing existing commitments from Argentina, says oilseeds trader Jonathan Lane.
"There is currently around a £20 gap between old and new crop prices and at some stage these need to meet," he says.
