Buyers: hold your nerve
"You'd better buy it today or you'll lose your allocation.""We've only got 100/300/500 left to do then that's it."
"We can't buy the seed/get the backstops."
"It's the inverse basis at the stem thingy coupled with the other thing that I can't remember the name of, but I heard the foreign people that set our prices talk about it the last time I was in a meeting with them months ago."
"Everybody else/all your competitors are buying it."
"This is a serious buying opportunity."
How many of those have you heard recently? And how many have you fallen for?
Your the buyer for Christ's sake. The customer. You tell the seller what to do not the other way round.
The market has fallen quite a long way rather quickly hasn't it? From the dizzy record heights we reached who can say how much further prices will fall? Is hipro soya at £265 really cheap? Ditto rape at £150? Wheatfeed at £125? Or bloody sugar beet at £180??!!!
And we haven't even seen any harvest pressure yet.
Crude is around $20 below it's levels of early July. Our chums at Goldman Sachs didn't quite get their Independence Day wish of $150/barrel, but they nearly did. The ethanol/biodiesel industries were crying out for raw materials, well the farmers of the world have grown them. Will they still be required? Will government subsidies remain in place to fund an industry built on some ideological whim? And more importantly would you want to bet on it?
If not where the hell is all this stuff going to go?
Meanwhile, doesn't the image above bear an uncanny resemblance to the charts on the right?
