Friday CBOT Closing Comments: Soybeans
Beans actually behaved pretty predictably for once. Nearby July closed 21c higher, with gains gradually diminishing as we go further forward into new-crop months which posted gains of 6-9c.
The USDA report came in pretty much bang on the button of expectations forecasting 2008-09 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, compared to 175 million in June and the average analyst estimate of 139 million. The USDA pegged 2007-08 soybean stocks at 125 million, unchanged from June. The average of analysts' pre-report estimates was 123 million.
A choppy session saw new-crop Nov fluctuate between 24c down and 33c up, before deciding to meet in the middle and settle 9c firmer.
The nears supported by the tight balance sheet and the prospect of a pick up of exports if & when the Argy farmers eject their toys from the perambulator (again).
The Midwest weather looks non-threatening at the moment, but there will undoubtedly be weather scares ahead in August (too hot/dry) and beyond (too cold/early frost). I'll still take prices to work lower once the crop is in come October.
On the week as a whole a 33 1/2-cent drop in CBOT August futures also took the value of soybeans in U.S. storage off recent record highs.
The USDA report came in pretty much bang on the button of expectations forecasting 2008-09 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, compared to 175 million in June and the average analyst estimate of 139 million. The USDA pegged 2007-08 soybean stocks at 125 million, unchanged from June. The average of analysts' pre-report estimates was 123 million.
A choppy session saw new-crop Nov fluctuate between 24c down and 33c up, before deciding to meet in the middle and settle 9c firmer.
The nears supported by the tight balance sheet and the prospect of a pick up of exports if & when the Argy farmers eject their toys from the perambulator (again).
The Midwest weather looks non-threatening at the moment, but there will undoubtedly be weather scares ahead in August (too hot/dry) and beyond (too cold/early frost). I'll still take prices to work lower once the crop is in come October.
On the week as a whole a 33 1/2-cent drop in CBOT August futures also took the value of soybeans in U.S. storage off recent record highs.
