Argy Wheat Crop 'Dismal'

Well, I guess we've been well overdue for a crop disaster somewhere, and it looks like Argentina is the first name out of the hat for some time.

The one thing the drought has down down there is advance the harvest to around 87% complete as of Christmas Day, according to the Argy Ag Secretariat. That's up 17 points from the harvest pace of a year ago.

One report circulating on the Dow Jones wires says that in southern Buenos Aires province, near Bahia Blanca, yields are averaging just 0.65mt/ha.

Let me read you that again. Averaging, not reported as low as in the worst farm in the province, AVERAGING 0.65mt/ha. It's one of those figures that is so low you wonder if it's a typo.

"Dismal" is how the Ag Secretariat describe it, and they certainly aren't wrong there considering that in decent parts of Europe we can average 7-8mt/ha.

Their official production estimate of just 9mmt vs 16mmt last season may be in jeopardy if yields like that are correct.