eCBOT Close/Early Call
eCBOT grains closed mostly higher Tuesday helped by rebounding stock markets recovering from early losses on spillover weakness from last night's Wall St crash.
Crude fell to fresh 3 1/2 year lows of $47.36/barrel, but currently stands around $2 above those levels.
Soybeans closed 3-5c higher, with wheat up 4-6c and corn up 1/4c.
The grain market appears to be trying to distance itself from outside influences and get back to trading the fundamentals. Crude and equities have exerted a much greater influence over ag commodities recently than had previously been the case. It will be interesting to see if the grains can manage to extricate themselves from this situation.
The chart below shows the % change over the last three months for crude relative to the grains complex:
The gradual drift away from the influence of crude oil is there for all to see. Out of interest the spike in the price of beans near the beginning of the chart was the day that spot beans closed something like five times their normal daily limit up move on the day the September contract expired due to a technical squeeze.
So, lets report on a few fundamentals & hope that they might actually start to become a bit more relevant from now on.
USDA data released Monday showed wheat inspections were at 19.808 million bushels for the week ended Nov. 27. This is slightly above expectations of 14-19 million bushels and 2.6 million bushels above last week's levels.
Egypt and Japan are back in the market this week. The US will be hoping to repeat last week's success and grab another slice of the Egyptian action.
The Australian crop seems likely to contain 1-2 million tonnes less milling wheat than anticipated due to harvest rains in the SE.
Recent Argy rains may have come too late to help the wheat crop there, which is expected to come in around 10mmt compared to 16mmt a year ago.
The CWB said that world plantings in 2009 will be 3% lower.
Large speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT corn and wheat futures and options in the week ended Nov. 25 and increased their net long position in soybeans, according to government data released on Monday.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn futures are expected to open steady; soybeans 3 to 5 higher; wheat 4 to 6 higher.
Crude fell to fresh 3 1/2 year lows of $47.36/barrel, but currently stands around $2 above those levels.
Soybeans closed 3-5c higher, with wheat up 4-6c and corn up 1/4c.
The grain market appears to be trying to distance itself from outside influences and get back to trading the fundamentals. Crude and equities have exerted a much greater influence over ag commodities recently than had previously been the case. It will be interesting to see if the grains can manage to extricate themselves from this situation.
The chart below shows the % change over the last three months for crude relative to the grains complex:
The gradual drift away from the influence of crude oil is there for all to see. Out of interest the spike in the price of beans near the beginning of the chart was the day that spot beans closed something like five times their normal daily limit up move on the day the September contract expired due to a technical squeeze.
So, lets report on a few fundamentals & hope that they might actually start to become a bit more relevant from now on.
USDA data released Monday showed wheat inspections were at 19.808 million bushels for the week ended Nov. 27. This is slightly above expectations of 14-19 million bushels and 2.6 million bushels above last week's levels.
Egypt and Japan are back in the market this week. The US will be hoping to repeat last week's success and grab another slice of the Egyptian action.
The Australian crop seems likely to contain 1-2 million tonnes less milling wheat than anticipated due to harvest rains in the SE.
Recent Argy rains may have come too late to help the wheat crop there, which is expected to come in around 10mmt compared to 16mmt a year ago.
The CWB said that world plantings in 2009 will be 3% lower.
Large speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT corn and wheat futures and options in the week ended Nov. 25 and increased their net long position in soybeans, according to government data released on Monday.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn futures are expected to open steady; soybeans 3 to 5 higher; wheat 4 to 6 higher.
