EU Wheat Ends Slighty Lower

EU wheat futures closed with modest losses Thursday. March Paris milling wheat futures closed down EUR1.25 at EUR127.75/tonne. May London feed wheat dropped just GBP0.05 to GBP97.75/tonne.

Not a lot of change in sentiment really, in quiet pre-Christmas trade. Farmers remain reluctant sellers, buyers are generally well covered nearby and fairly relaxed that prices aren't going to run away too much in the new year.

It seems to me like it's going to be all about currency for the next few months.

With the pound hitting record all-time lows on a seemingly daily basis against the euro, that is going to support UK wheat as we get into the new year. Fresh export homes are opening up for feed wheat (lets face it that's all we've got), if we look hard enough.

Concerns still abound for the 2009/10 crop. Exactly how much has been planted? How late is it? And the yields can't possibly match last season's record can they?

A few reports are starting to emerge now that 2009/10 UK wheat production may be down some 8-10% on the recently harvested crop. Nogger thinks that final output will most likely be lower than that.

It's early days and a hell of a lot is in the lap of the Gods viz the weather, but I'll say it again, the balance of probability points to final production numbers in 2009 much lower than the figures being generally mooted by the safety merchants. 15-20% down is nearer the mark I'd say, pegging next season's UK crop in the region 14-15mmt.

Yes I know that puts me out all alone on a limb, but I like it out there. If I wanted to just blindly agree with the rest of the herd then you probably wouldn't be reading this.