UK 2009 Wheat Production Seen Down 8 Pct
Strategie Grains are forecasting the 2009/10 UK wheat production 8% lower at 16.015mmt, down almost 1.4mmt from this season's crop.
Planted area is seen 5% lower at 1.97 million hectares (from 2.08 million ha) and yields are also seen 3% lower from last season's record 8.39mt/ha to 8.12mt ha.
Amongst the more salient points made are that of the intended area, 10% has still to go into the ground.
I still contend that the balance of probability suggests that final 2009/10 yields within 3% of last season's record is optimistic. A late planted crop, slowly developing due to low temperatures and more than adequate soil moisture could potentially reduce yields, as could reduced inputs due to cost constraints.
Planted area is seen 5% lower at 1.97 million hectares (from 2.08 million ha) and yields are also seen 3% lower from last season's record 8.39mt/ha to 8.12mt ha.
Amongst the more salient points made are that of the intended area, 10% has still to go into the ground.
I still contend that the balance of probability suggests that final 2009/10 yields within 3% of last season's record is optimistic. A late planted crop, slowly developing due to low temperatures and more than adequate soil moisture could potentially reduce yields, as could reduced inputs due to cost constraints.
