Argy Soy Latest

First the good news. There is some rain forecast for Sunday night/Monday morning in Argentina.

Second the bad news. It is not forecast to be a drought busting rain event.

Thirdly, more bad news. Even warmer and drier weather is forecast to return by the middle of next week.

Fourthly, analysts are finally starting to tentatively put some numbers on the 2009 crop. And largely it doesn't look pretty. Around 89% of original planting intentions for soybeans are so far in the ground. Some are saying that it won't get much higher than this.

According to Panagricola S.A. vice president Ricardo Baccarin, the Argy crop will produce around 41-42mmt in 2009, and production could fall even further without significant rains soon, he says.

We can be pretty sure that the USDA will reduce its estimate for Argy production significantly in their next report. The agriculture attaché in Argentina will begin scouting production potential in Entre Rios on January 26 and working outward through the 28th and have results on January 30th just days in front of the February 10th USDA crop report.

As we know, the favourite tactic of the USDA is 'be conservative' so a more modest production revision is likely, maybe say in the region of 46.5mmt, down 3mmt? More aggressive private estimates say that without rains we could easily have a crop number starting with a three. And the last number won't be a high one either!