eCBOT Close/Early Call
eCBOT grains closed narrowly lower with March soybeans 1 1/4 cents down at $10.07 3/4, March wheat 1/2 cent lower at $5.92 and March corn down 4 cents at $3.89 3/4.
Conflicting reports emanating from Argentina are keeping the trade nervous. President and bit of a babe, Cristina Fernandez, said yesterday that the country was suffering from an "agricultural emergency" gripped by the worst drought in living memory.
But what is she going to do about it? A very interesting question. With millions of tonnes being wiped off Argy grain and oilseed production this year the government could lose $4.3 billion in tax revenue from the agricultural sector, according to one analyst.
That dwarfs the $66 million in subsidies to small agricultural producers, which translates to about $4,500 each for qualifying farmers, already pledged by the government.
How she responds could have a big impact on this years midterm elections. Fernandez's has already suffered when, in 2008, strikes by farmers and truckers forced her to reverse the tax hikes on grain exports that her government imposed when prices were soaring, in hopes of filling the governments coffers.
In other news, China is likely to be largely absent from the export market this week due to Lunar New Year celebrations. That could put a cap on soybean exports that have been very buoyant recently.
The infamous "February Break" or "John Deere Low" which often sees prices dip at this time of year is looming.
For wheat, there is the possibility of the US picking up some fresh export interest from Brazil, who is expected to import around 5.3mmt of the grain in 2009, due to Argentina's inability to supply.
There is also some concern about dryness in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Iraq is making noises that it will be in the market to cover a significant volume of wheat during February, rumoured to be in the region of 2mmt, to cover it's requirements through the first half of 2009.
Early calls for this afternoons CBOT session: Corn Down 2-4c, Soy Down 1-3c, Wheat Down 1-3c.
Conflicting reports emanating from Argentina are keeping the trade nervous. President and bit of a babe, Cristina Fernandez, said yesterday that the country was suffering from an "agricultural emergency" gripped by the worst drought in living memory.
But what is she going to do about it? A very interesting question. With millions of tonnes being wiped off Argy grain and oilseed production this year the government could lose $4.3 billion in tax revenue from the agricultural sector, according to one analyst.
That dwarfs the $66 million in subsidies to small agricultural producers, which translates to about $4,500 each for qualifying farmers, already pledged by the government.
How she responds could have a big impact on this years midterm elections. Fernandez's has already suffered when, in 2008, strikes by farmers and truckers forced her to reverse the tax hikes on grain exports that her government imposed when prices were soaring, in hopes of filling the governments coffers.
In other news, China is likely to be largely absent from the export market this week due to Lunar New Year celebrations. That could put a cap on soybean exports that have been very buoyant recently.
The infamous "February Break" or "John Deere Low" which often sees prices dip at this time of year is looming.
For wheat, there is the possibility of the US picking up some fresh export interest from Brazil, who is expected to import around 5.3mmt of the grain in 2009, due to Argentina's inability to supply.
There is also some concern about dryness in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Iraq is making noises that it will be in the market to cover a significant volume of wheat during February, rumoured to be in the region of 2mmt, to cover it's requirements through the first half of 2009.
Early calls for this afternoons CBOT session: Corn Down 2-4c, Soy Down 1-3c, Wheat Down 1-3c.
