Monday Morning Markets

The overnight markets have traded either side in quite a volatile session so far as traders try to weigh up exactly how much rain fell in Argentina over the weekend.

Reports I am reading suggest some rain did fall, up to 3/4" in some places, but that rains were generally scattered, with temperatures reaching 102 degrees.

There doesn't seem to be much rain in the forecast today, maybe a few lingering light shower, then it's back to business as normal for the rest of the week. Hot and dry.

Here's the 24 hour precipitation forecast map with the main soybean area marked by the red circle:

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Friday that 28.8 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds could be lost to drought this season.

On the export front, after another round of big soybean sales reported Friday, things may quieten down for a couple of weeks with the Chinese New Year celebrations starting today.

At 8.30am GMT March soybeans (which opened 6c higher) were 2c down having traded in a range of +15c to -17 1/2c. March corn was down a half and March wheat up 2 3/4c.

Crude oil was just over a dollar weaker at $45.33/barrel as demand continues to slump.

The euro and the pound both remain weaker on the outlook for lower interest rates. The pound was $2.11 as recently as November 2007, and spent most of that year with one euro worth around 65/66 pence. Today it's $1.3695 and 94.5 pence.