Overnight Markets

The overnight markets are mixed this morning trying to reconcile the negative impact a firmer dollar and weak crude, with the bullish effect of the continuing drought in Argentina.

In what looks like being a volatile session after a three day weekend, beans are down around 7c, wheat down 1c and corn up 2-4c as I type. Check the latest movements on the right as things look like they could vary quite considerably this morning.

The drought in Argentina is ongoing, with earlier maturing corn the first crop under most threat. With the wheat crop already down the toilet, analysts are now predicting a total 2009 Argy grain crop of 'just' 80 million tonnes, 20 million below last year.

Soybeans are down a little as some analysts (but not me) seem to think that there is still long enough left for timely rains to help achieve a decent crop. But what do I know?

India, expecting another bumper wheat crop in March/April, has said that it may lift its ban on wheat exports once the harvest is complete in May.

Japan is seeking 157,000mt of US/Canadian and Australian wheat in a routine tender Thursday.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation has increased its estimate on canola output this year to 1.62mmt, up 10% from its previous forecast, and double last years production.

Crude oil is down $3.71 at $32.80/barrel as the global economic meltdown continues to eat away at demand.