CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
March soybeans finished 20 1/2 cents lower at $9.59 1/2, falling to one month lows, on reports of rain in Argentina and more in the forecast for the week ahead. Additional bearish pressure came from a higher US dollar index, lower crude oil futures and the same old concerns about the US and global economy. It will be interesting to see if China come out again as heavy buyers of beans after their week-long break. The market seems rangebound and we need something pretty dramatic to break us out, it may take a few months yet for the market to realise that the supply situation in Argentina is in reality probably a lot worse than is currently factored into the market.
Corn
Corn closed lower with March ending down 8 1/2 cents at $3.70 1/2 per bushel. Again Argentina weather provided a bit of a bearish influence, ditto a firmer dollar, weak crude and economic worries. As with soybeans it is my belief that Argentine weather will ultimately wipe out a considerably higher amount of corn than is currently factored into prices. An inch or inch and a half of rain will not be adequate to sort this crop out, and after this week the forecast switches back to hot & dry.
Wheat
March wheat ended down 4 1/4 cents at $5.63 3/4 a bushel, not too bad a performance considering. Continued dryness in Oklahoma and Texas added a major weather market concern, with some reports of struggling wheat crops likely to be dug up and replanted with cotton. Still, spillover weakness from soy & corn conspired to drive wheat prices lower, although some strength was garnered from news that Egypt bought 60,000mt US wheat over the weekend.
March soybeans finished 20 1/2 cents lower at $9.59 1/2, falling to one month lows, on reports of rain in Argentina and more in the forecast for the week ahead. Additional bearish pressure came from a higher US dollar index, lower crude oil futures and the same old concerns about the US and global economy. It will be interesting to see if China come out again as heavy buyers of beans after their week-long break. The market seems rangebound and we need something pretty dramatic to break us out, it may take a few months yet for the market to realise that the supply situation in Argentina is in reality probably a lot worse than is currently factored into the market.
Corn
Corn closed lower with March ending down 8 1/2 cents at $3.70 1/2 per bushel. Again Argentina weather provided a bit of a bearish influence, ditto a firmer dollar, weak crude and economic worries. As with soybeans it is my belief that Argentine weather will ultimately wipe out a considerably higher amount of corn than is currently factored into prices. An inch or inch and a half of rain will not be adequate to sort this crop out, and after this week the forecast switches back to hot & dry.
Wheat
March wheat ended down 4 1/4 cents at $5.63 3/4 a bushel, not too bad a performance considering. Continued dryness in Oklahoma and Texas added a major weather market concern, with some reports of struggling wheat crops likely to be dug up and replanted with cotton. Still, spillover weakness from soy & corn conspired to drive wheat prices lower, although some strength was garnered from news that Egypt bought 60,000mt US wheat over the weekend.
