Overnight Markets Push Higher
The overnight grains are firmer, adding to last night's gains as the dollar continues to slide. Beans currently around 10-12c higher, wheat and corn up 2-3c. Latest eCBOT prices are on the right.
The dollar is lower in cautious trade ahead of key US jobs data later today that is expected to paint an even bleaker picture of the US labour market.
The pound is higher against the euro too, as traders conclude that yesterday's half point cut in interest rates was already factored into the market. The ECB will cut in March, according to just about the entire world. It may be a case that the BOE cut is being seen as more pro-active than the dithering approach adopted by Mr Trichet.
Conab cut it's Brazilian soy & corn crop estimates yesterday. The USDA are likely to do the same when they release their latest WASDE figures next week. They are also, of course, expected to slash output forecasts in Argentina. The US Attache dropped his estimate for Argy soy production to 42.5mmt from 49.5mmt earlier in the week.
Upside potential for corn will be limited by the USDA likely raising their stocks estimates as 21% of the US ethanol industry out of action (according to ADM this week) due to poor margins. With crude at $40/barrel, that doesn't look like changing anytime soon.
Hurrah!! We appear to be returning to the good old days where grain is grain, not a raw material for fuel. Fundamentals are what the market should trade on, lets get back to focusing on crop production, weather, supply, demand not whether rebels have shut down a Shell refinery in Nigeria.
South Korea remain big buyers, booking 330,000 of corn yesterday in what seems to be a move to get the orders in before freight goes even higher. They have now booked around a million tonnes of feed wheat and corn in the last fortnight.
More than 10 million acres of wheat in China is on the country's highest level of alert following more than three months of drought. That is keeping the wheat market on it's toes.
The dollar is lower in cautious trade ahead of key US jobs data later today that is expected to paint an even bleaker picture of the US labour market.
The pound is higher against the euro too, as traders conclude that yesterday's half point cut in interest rates was already factored into the market. The ECB will cut in March, according to just about the entire world. It may be a case that the BOE cut is being seen as more pro-active than the dithering approach adopted by Mr Trichet.
Conab cut it's Brazilian soy & corn crop estimates yesterday. The USDA are likely to do the same when they release their latest WASDE figures next week. They are also, of course, expected to slash output forecasts in Argentina. The US Attache dropped his estimate for Argy soy production to 42.5mmt from 49.5mmt earlier in the week.
Upside potential for corn will be limited by the USDA likely raising their stocks estimates as 21% of the US ethanol industry out of action (according to ADM this week) due to poor margins. With crude at $40/barrel, that doesn't look like changing anytime soon.
Hurrah!! We appear to be returning to the good old days where grain is grain, not a raw material for fuel. Fundamentals are what the market should trade on, lets get back to focusing on crop production, weather, supply, demand not whether rebels have shut down a Shell refinery in Nigeria.
South Korea remain big buyers, booking 330,000 of corn yesterday in what seems to be a move to get the orders in before freight goes even higher. They have now booked around a million tonnes of feed wheat and corn in the last fortnight.
More than 10 million acres of wheat in China is on the country's highest level of alert following more than three months of drought. That is keeping the wheat market on it's toes.
