What To Expect From The USDA Tuesday
Perhaps the most closely watched figure when the USDA come out with their revised supply & demand and stocks data on Tuesday will be the size of this season's Argy soybean crop.
Last month's estimate of 49.5mmt will surely be cut, but by how much? The USDA attaché now pegs output at 42.5mmt, some private estimates start with a three. The USDA are famously cautious, and rarely slash or raise by such large amounts in one go. It is also noteworthy that the attaché did his report before this past weeks rains fell. I think they may come in around 45mmt, 4.5mmt down on their last estimate.
For what it's worth the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Friday that this past weeks rains helped to "stop the abrupt decline in the yields" meaning that this season's crop would not now fall below 40mmt.
Soy output in Brazil may also be trimmed by a million or so, from last months 59mmt to around 58mmt.
Of course it isn't just soybeans that have been affected by the drought in South America, corn production too is likely to have been badly hit.
For Argentina, last months USDA estimate was 16.5mmt, and for Brazil 53.5mmt. This time round I think we can expect figures of around 14mmt and 52mmt respectively. For Argentina that would be a reduction of a third on last season's 20.85mmt crop.
The USDA may well also revise Argy wheat production lower now that the harvest is complete. Thier January estimate was 10.5mmt, around 2mmt higher than local estimates, I think that might now be trimmed to around 9mmt.
Now we move on to US ending stocks. The corn number is likely to be increased due to lower demand from the ethanol sector. Last months figure was 1.790 billion bushels. The average trade estimate this time round is 1.838 billion, in a range of 1.740-1.940 billion. I'd tend to side towards the upper end of that scale and look for ending stocks around 1.9 billion.
For soybeans, the average trade estimate is for stocks to be reduced from last months 225 million to 203 million, in a range of 123-230 million. I'd say around 200 million is about right.
For wheat only minor tweaks are likely, with ending stocks very similar to last months 655 million. The average trade guess is 649 million, from a range of 591-685 million. I see very little change here with a number around 650-655 million.
Last month's estimate of 49.5mmt will surely be cut, but by how much? The USDA attaché now pegs output at 42.5mmt, some private estimates start with a three. The USDA are famously cautious, and rarely slash or raise by such large amounts in one go. It is also noteworthy that the attaché did his report before this past weeks rains fell. I think they may come in around 45mmt, 4.5mmt down on their last estimate.
For what it's worth the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Friday that this past weeks rains helped to "stop the abrupt decline in the yields" meaning that this season's crop would not now fall below 40mmt.
Soy output in Brazil may also be trimmed by a million or so, from last months 59mmt to around 58mmt.
Of course it isn't just soybeans that have been affected by the drought in South America, corn production too is likely to have been badly hit.
For Argentina, last months USDA estimate was 16.5mmt, and for Brazil 53.5mmt. This time round I think we can expect figures of around 14mmt and 52mmt respectively. For Argentina that would be a reduction of a third on last season's 20.85mmt crop.
The USDA may well also revise Argy wheat production lower now that the harvest is complete. Thier January estimate was 10.5mmt, around 2mmt higher than local estimates, I think that might now be trimmed to around 9mmt.
Now we move on to US ending stocks. The corn number is likely to be increased due to lower demand from the ethanol sector. Last months figure was 1.790 billion bushels. The average trade estimate this time round is 1.838 billion, in a range of 1.740-1.940 billion. I'd tend to side towards the upper end of that scale and look for ending stocks around 1.9 billion.
For soybeans, the average trade estimate is for stocks to be reduced from last months 225 million to 203 million, in a range of 123-230 million. I'd say around 200 million is about right.
For wheat only minor tweaks are likely, with ending stocks very similar to last months 655 million. The average trade guess is 649 million, from a range of 591-685 million. I see very little change here with a number around 650-655 million.
