CBOT Closing Comments
Corn
March corn finished at $3.75, down 1 ¾ cents, December corn finished at $4.18, up 2 ¼ cents. Corn was the strongest in the grains complex supported by lower planting forecasts for 2009, a weaker dollar, and continued talk of a raising of the limit on ethanol inclusion in gasoline. Informa said that 2009 plantings will be 81.419 million acres, a decrease from their January estimate of 82.7 million, and 5.3% below last season's 85.982 million. Allendale also released their planting estimates for the coming season pegging corn at 85.406 million. Quite a lot more than Informa, and closer to the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum estimate of 86 million. Allendale say that 4.15 billion bushels of corn will go into ethanol production in 2009/10, up from 3.70 billion that the USDA estimate in 2008/09. Ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 1.295 billion from Allendale, sharply lower than the 1.740 billion estimated by the USSDA for the current 2008/09 marketing year. Stocks/usage is seen dropping to 10% by Allendale, from 15% in the current season.
Soybeans
March soybeans closed at $8.82 ½, down 16 ½ cents, March soy meal closed at $286.00, down $3.00; March soy oil closed at $29.80, down 31 cents. Informa estimated 2009 US soybean plantings at 81.502 million acres, an increase from their January estimate of 80.8 million, and 7.6% up on last season's 75.718 million acres. Allendale said that US farmers will plant a bit less at 80.439 million, but still 6.2% more than last year. Crucially Allendale peg 2009/10 ending stocks at 526 million bushels compared to the USDA's estimate earlier in the week of just 185 million in the current season. Stocks/usage is seen increasing from 6% this season to 17% next season by Allendale. The most striking thing about the soybean numbers is that both private firm's acreage estimates are a lot higher than the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum guess. By 3.4 million in the case of Allendale, and by 4.5 million in the case of Informa.
Wheat
March CBOT wheat settled at $5.06 ½, down 8 ¾ cents. Informa estimated 2009 US all wheat plantings at 59.7 million acres, and Allendale at 57.977 million. The latter figure is very close to last month's USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 58.0 million. The Allendale number is an 8.2% decrease from 2008. Even with a sharp drop in plantings Allendale still see 2009/10 ending stocks at 647 million bushels, a relatively small drop on the 712 million forecast for the current season by the USDA earlier in the week. One reason for that is that Allendale are using a yield of 44 bu/acre for the current crop despite the drought situation in the southern Plains. That is only modestly lower than last season's all-time record of 44.9 bu/acre and would make 2009 the third highest yielding year on record despite the drought.
March corn finished at $3.75, down 1 ¾ cents, December corn finished at $4.18, up 2 ¼ cents. Corn was the strongest in the grains complex supported by lower planting forecasts for 2009, a weaker dollar, and continued talk of a raising of the limit on ethanol inclusion in gasoline. Informa said that 2009 plantings will be 81.419 million acres, a decrease from their January estimate of 82.7 million, and 5.3% below last season's 85.982 million. Allendale also released their planting estimates for the coming season pegging corn at 85.406 million. Quite a lot more than Informa, and closer to the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum estimate of 86 million. Allendale say that 4.15 billion bushels of corn will go into ethanol production in 2009/10, up from 3.70 billion that the USDA estimate in 2008/09. Ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 1.295 billion from Allendale, sharply lower than the 1.740 billion estimated by the USSDA for the current 2008/09 marketing year. Stocks/usage is seen dropping to 10% by Allendale, from 15% in the current season.
Soybeans
March soybeans closed at $8.82 ½, down 16 ½ cents, March soy meal closed at $286.00, down $3.00; March soy oil closed at $29.80, down 31 cents. Informa estimated 2009 US soybean plantings at 81.502 million acres, an increase from their January estimate of 80.8 million, and 7.6% up on last season's 75.718 million acres. Allendale said that US farmers will plant a bit less at 80.439 million, but still 6.2% more than last year. Crucially Allendale peg 2009/10 ending stocks at 526 million bushels compared to the USDA's estimate earlier in the week of just 185 million in the current season. Stocks/usage is seen increasing from 6% this season to 17% next season by Allendale. The most striking thing about the soybean numbers is that both private firm's acreage estimates are a lot higher than the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum guess. By 3.4 million in the case of Allendale, and by 4.5 million in the case of Informa.
Wheat
March CBOT wheat settled at $5.06 ½, down 8 ¾ cents. Informa estimated 2009 US all wheat plantings at 59.7 million acres, and Allendale at 57.977 million. The latter figure is very close to last month's USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 58.0 million. The Allendale number is an 8.2% decrease from 2008. Even with a sharp drop in plantings Allendale still see 2009/10 ending stocks at 647 million bushels, a relatively small drop on the 712 million forecast for the current season by the USDA earlier in the week. One reason for that is that Allendale are using a yield of 44 bu/acre for the current crop despite the drought situation in the southern Plains. That is only modestly lower than last season's all-time record of 44.9 bu/acre and would make 2009 the third highest yielding year on record despite the drought.
