USDA S&D Report Expectations
The USDA are set to release their latest revised Supply & Demand report at 13.30GMT Wednesday.
The general consensus is that soybean ending stocks are likely to be revised down, corn revised up a tad and wheat left around unchanged.
It wouldn't surprise me however to see wheat carryout increased a little, given the relatively slow pace of US exports recently. Thirty nine weeks into the marketing year exports are running around 75% of the USDA's target figure. That is behind "normal" pace of around 80% at this time of year.
Brazil has begun buying Russian wheat, which had a reputed USD60/tonne price advantage over US wheat, according to media reports from Sao Paulo.
Against a background like that it is difficult to envisage anything other than US export pace slowing rather than gaining ground in the last thirteen weeks of the marketing year.
Corn ending stocks will probably be higher, reflecting slumping demand from the ethanol sector in the face of burgeoning crude oil inventories.
Bean carryout is expected lower due to largely better than anticipated exports.
Trade expectations:
Corn ending stocks are guessed at 1.8 billion bushels on average, up slightly from 1.79 billion last month in a range of 1.71-1.84 billion.
Soybeans are seen at 195 million bushels, down from 210 million last month and a range of 123-220 million.
Wheat stocks are forecast at 656 million, vs 655 million a month ago and in a range of 625-680 million.
The general consensus is that soybean ending stocks are likely to be revised down, corn revised up a tad and wheat left around unchanged.
It wouldn't surprise me however to see wheat carryout increased a little, given the relatively slow pace of US exports recently. Thirty nine weeks into the marketing year exports are running around 75% of the USDA's target figure. That is behind "normal" pace of around 80% at this time of year.
Brazil has begun buying Russian wheat, which had a reputed USD60/tonne price advantage over US wheat, according to media reports from Sao Paulo.
Against a background like that it is difficult to envisage anything other than US export pace slowing rather than gaining ground in the last thirteen weeks of the marketing year.
Corn ending stocks will probably be higher, reflecting slumping demand from the ethanol sector in the face of burgeoning crude oil inventories.
Bean carryout is expected lower due to largely better than anticipated exports.
Trade expectations:
Corn ending stocks are guessed at 1.8 billion bushels on average, up slightly from 1.79 billion last month in a range of 1.71-1.84 billion.
Soybeans are seen at 195 million bushels, down from 210 million last month and a range of 123-220 million.
Wheat stocks are forecast at 656 million, vs 655 million a month ago and in a range of 625-680 million.
