Argentina - An 'Ecological Disaster'
The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange lowered its 2009 Argentine soybean harvest estimate down to 34 MMT last night. We have to ask ourselves where on earth would we be without the February rains that were hailed as "drought busting" by some analysts?
Private firms in Argentina are now forecasting production to be 32 MMT, compared to last year’s 46.2 MMT production. As the drought continues, this number may fall even more. The map below shows the drought that has worsened over the past 3 weeks over major soybean areas in Argentina, warn StormX.
Latest computer guidance indicates the soybean areas will not see any rain through early next week, say StormX. By next Wednesday, a few showers may work into the region, but the Cereals Exchange expects overall dry conditions to now persist for the next three months. Officials in Buenos Aires are reporting significant erosion occurring in parts of the province leading to what the are deeming an “ecological disaster” they conclude.
Largely dry conditions over the next three months will also have an negative impact on wheat plantings, which are already forecast 19% lower, and the early development of the crop. The fifth largest wheat exporter in the world in recent years may already face the ignominious prospect of now having to import wheat to cover its needs this year. It's early days, but it doesn't look like things are going to get much better for the 2009 crop which will be harvested Nov/Dec.
Private firms in Argentina are now forecasting production to be 32 MMT, compared to last year’s 46.2 MMT production. As the drought continues, this number may fall even more. The map below shows the drought that has worsened over the past 3 weeks over major soybean areas in Argentina, warn StormX.
Latest computer guidance indicates the soybean areas will not see any rain through early next week, say StormX. By next Wednesday, a few showers may work into the region, but the Cereals Exchange expects overall dry conditions to now persist for the next three months. Officials in Buenos Aires are reporting significant erosion occurring in parts of the province leading to what the are deeming an “ecological disaster” they conclude.
Largely dry conditions over the next three months will also have an negative impact on wheat plantings, which are already forecast 19% lower, and the early development of the crop. The fifth largest wheat exporter in the world in recent years may already face the ignominious prospect of now having to import wheat to cover its needs this year. It's early days, but it doesn't look like things are going to get much better for the 2009 crop which will be harvested Nov/Dec.
