CBOT Close


May corn closed at $3.97, up ¾ cents. Corn is stuck in a sideways range at around the $4 mark. The average trade estimate for corn ending stocks from the USDA tomorrow is 1.731 million bushels versus 1.74 in March and 1.624 a year ago with a range of 1.675 to 1.954. Cold and wet weather in the US threatens to put some potential corn acres into soybeans. With talk of the US ethanol mandate increasing from a 10% inclusion level up to 12-13%, and US exports already holding up well, any further reduction in US plantings could easily be construed as bullish.


May soybeans ended at $10.06, up 16 ½ cents. As with corn, soybeans are stuck in a sideways range, only this time it's round $10/bushel not $4/bushel. The USDA announced that China purchased another two cargoes (110,000 MT) today, proving that they haven't switched demand entirely to South America just yet. The average ending stocks guess for the USDA Supply & Demand report for soybeans is 169 million bushels versus 185 in March and 205 last year with the trade guesses ranging from 101 to 185 million bushels. Argy soybean production for the current season is also expected to be cut.


May CBOT wheat closed at $5.32, down 7 ¾ cents. The weather in the Southern Plains is forecast to warm up and provide some rain in the next week or so. The jury is still out on exactly how much damage has been caused by the hard freeze earlier this week. My informants are telling me that output could easily be cut much more sharply than current official estimates are saying. The average trade ending stocks estimate for Thursday’s Supply Demand report for wheat is 697 million bushels versus 712 in March and 306 last year. The range of trade guesses are 666 to 727 million bushel.