The Grand National Winner
After many hours of form study, my idea of the winner for this weekend's big race is:
KILBEGGAN BLADE
Currently best available price I can find is 25/1 on Betfair. If it comes in then you can all by me a pint via PayPal on Monday.
If you don't want to simply go with the flow, try this....
Horses carrying between 10 stone and 11 stone have an outstanding record in the race, you need to whittle down the numbers somehow, the first place to start is by ruling out everything with over 11 stone. It's not infallible, but it's a decent start that has largely stood me in good stead for many years. Only Hedgehunter with just one pound over this weight has won the race carrying more than 11 stone since 1983.
It isn't a race for outsiders anymore. Look for horses 33/1 or less. That gets us down to about 15 horses carrying 10-11 stone and 33/1 or less, here's my rating of each:
Mon Mome, 10th last year, beaten by Kilbeggan Blade last time out and now almost a stone worse off at the weights. Nogger rated 2/5
Silver Birch, winner in 2007 but now 12 years old, been largely off the course ever since, might get round but unlikely to trouble the judges. 3/5
Butler's Cabin, fell when going quite well last year at Becher's 2nd time round, not done much since. 3/5
Offshore Account, difficult to weigh up, talented and Irish, but something to prove. 3/5
Parson's Legacy, a bit old at 11 and maybe a bit high in the weights. 2/5
L'Ami, not in bad form at all elsewhere, but he's had two cracks at this already falling at 2nd last year. 2/5
Cornish Sett, fair form but only 12th last year and 4lb more this time round. 3/5
Darkness, fair form, goes on the ground but doesn't inspire me somehow. 3/5
Irish Invader, great form as he's won his last three, but over much shorter distances, still respected. 3.5/5
Rambling Minster, in great form & stays well, if he wasn't 11 years old and had his best form on soft ground then he might be my No 1 tip. 4/5
Southern Vic, fair form but doesn't thrill me. 3/5
Kilbeggan Blade, very good chase form over distances, likes the going, beat Rambling Minster fair & square at Sandown back in December and better off at the weights now, been given a couple of sharpeners over hurdles since which is becoming a bit of a trademark for horses running well in the National in recent years. 5/5
Brooklyn Brownie, been running well on this going, but a bit more distance & weight involved in this race. 3/5
Himalayan Trail, very difficult to weigh up, three of his last four were over hurdles and the other one he was pulled up in! 2/5
Maljimar, will only run if something drops out, but decent form nevertheless. Not without hope if he makes the cut. 3/5
KILBEGGAN BLADE
Currently best available price I can find is 25/1 on Betfair. If it comes in then you can all by me a pint via PayPal on Monday.
If you don't want to simply go with the flow, try this....
Horses carrying between 10 stone and 11 stone have an outstanding record in the race, you need to whittle down the numbers somehow, the first place to start is by ruling out everything with over 11 stone. It's not infallible, but it's a decent start that has largely stood me in good stead for many years. Only Hedgehunter with just one pound over this weight has won the race carrying more than 11 stone since 1983.
It isn't a race for outsiders anymore. Look for horses 33/1 or less. That gets us down to about 15 horses carrying 10-11 stone and 33/1 or less, here's my rating of each:
Mon Mome, 10th last year, beaten by Kilbeggan Blade last time out and now almost a stone worse off at the weights. Nogger rated 2/5
Silver Birch, winner in 2007 but now 12 years old, been largely off the course ever since, might get round but unlikely to trouble the judges. 3/5
Butler's Cabin, fell when going quite well last year at Becher's 2nd time round, not done much since. 3/5
Offshore Account, difficult to weigh up, talented and Irish, but something to prove. 3/5
Parson's Legacy, a bit old at 11 and maybe a bit high in the weights. 2/5
L'Ami, not in bad form at all elsewhere, but he's had two cracks at this already falling at 2nd last year. 2/5
Cornish Sett, fair form but only 12th last year and 4lb more this time round. 3/5
Darkness, fair form, goes on the ground but doesn't inspire me somehow. 3/5
Irish Invader, great form as he's won his last three, but over much shorter distances, still respected. 3.5/5
Rambling Minster, in great form & stays well, if he wasn't 11 years old and had his best form on soft ground then he might be my No 1 tip. 4/5
Southern Vic, fair form but doesn't thrill me. 3/5
Kilbeggan Blade, very good chase form over distances, likes the going, beat Rambling Minster fair & square at Sandown back in December and better off at the weights now, been given a couple of sharpeners over hurdles since which is becoming a bit of a trademark for horses running well in the National in recent years. 5/5
Brooklyn Brownie, been running well on this going, but a bit more distance & weight involved in this race. 3/5
Himalayan Trail, very difficult to weigh up, three of his last four were over hurdles and the other one he was pulled up in! 2/5
Maljimar, will only run if something drops out, but decent form nevertheless. Not without hope if he makes the cut. 3/5
