CBOT Closing Comments Thursday


July soybeans closed at $11.79, down 8 cents, and November soybeans closed at $10.53, up 3 cents further narrowing the old crop/new crop spread. July beans tried to push through the $12 mark but couldn't manage it. Planting delays will only serve to push more corn acres into soybeans, so I'd have to stay bearish on new-crop. Nearby however is a very different kettle of codlings. Short-term direction all depends on tomorrow's export sales report from the USDA. Trade estimates range from 700,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's export sales were a hefty 1,367,600 MT. Will China still be a significant buyer, particularly of old crop? We will have to wait and see, if they are then we could see nearby July break through the $12/bushel level tomorrow.


July CBOT wheat settled at $6.30 ½, up 4 ¾ cents, having been 20 up at one stage. Spring wheat plantings in North Dakota are still well behind schedule with more than 2 million acres of intended acres still unplanted as of Sunday in that one state alone. Early winter wheat harvesting in Texas & Oklahoma is providing some very poor yields by all accounts. Lower production prospects exist in various parts of the world, and Canada can expect a frost Sunday through to Tuesday. Indeed, sub-zero temperatures are also possible in the northern Plains next week. Trade estimates for weekly USDA export sales range from 350,000 to 450,000 MT. Last weeks sales were 563,500 MT.


July corn finished at $4.28 ¾, up 2 ¾ cents. Higher crude was supportive, but a strong dollar tempered gains. Weekend weather forecasts are mixed, although continued rains in Illinois & Indiana next week are a threat to corn acres there. It seems highly likely that the USDA's projected area will not all get in & that there will be some switching into soybeans. The question is how much? Trade estimates for tomorrow's USDA weekly export sales report for corn are 700,000 to 950,000 MT. Last weeks export sales were 822,000 MT.