CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans finished at $11.28, up 10 ½ cents. Some of this could be attributed to spillover strength from Tuesday's USDA report with regard to tight old-crop stocks. Generally steady to firmer crude oil was also supportive. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their estimate yet again for Argentine soybean output, this time by 1.2 MMT from last week to 32.8 MMT. Tomorrow’s export estimates for soybeans are for 650-750,000 MT. The US weather forecast is wet again for the next few days but drier next week, which should finally enable some fieldwork to take place.


July CBOT wheat closed at $5.92 ¾, up 2 cents, whilst July MGEX spring wheat ended at $7.04 ¾, up 7 ¼ cents. Spring wheat planting conditions are still far too wet in top producing state of North Dakota. With only 13% of the crop in the ground as of last Sunday, compared to 78% this time last year, time is running out and maybe up to a million acres of spring wheat won't even get into the ground according to some analysts. Yield potential is already starting to fall away, if it isn't in by the end of the month then there is no point planting at all is what many are saying. Meanwhile Argentine plantings are also being badly affected by drought. The crop there for late-2009 is now only seen at 8.7 MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, that is 2.3 MMT below the USDA's estimate yesterday and 6.3 MMT below what was anticipated just a couple of months ago. Export sales numbers for tomorrow’s USDA report are estimated at 200-450,000 MT.


July corn closed at $4.26 ½, down 1 cent. Wet weather continues to dog plantings, but a drier pattern may emerge next week which should help US farmers to advance fieldwork. Export sales estimates for corn for tomorrow’s report are 800,000-1.0 MMT. Crude oil added underlying support for corn today, as did yesterday's bullish ending stocks data from the USDA.