CBOT Closing Comments


July corn closed at $4.24, down 2 cents. Corn fell from a seven month high hit Wednesday pressured by lower crude oil and falling stock markets. Still, export sales were robust yet again and point towards final US ending stocks being below current USDA projections. The weather in the US is a mixed bag for the holiday weekend, showers are welcome in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa, where field moisture has diminished after windy, hot conditions earlier this week, say StormX. But rain is definitely not needed in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana where growers are scrambling to plant corn following serious rain-related delays, they add.


July Soybeans at $11.75, up 6 cents, and November Soybeans at $10.23 ½, up 9 cents. Weekly export sales were very strong, and yet again talk of Chinese cancellations, or at the very least deferrations, once again failed to materialise. In fact if Chinese purchases continue at this kind of level then we are potentially looking at the tightest US ending stocks in many years, possibly on record. This is a situation that should not be underestimated, with late plantings and therefore maturity & harvesting, coupled with the dramatic crop reductions in Argentina, the US is in very real danger of running out of soybeans this year. I know that this probably sounds like a ludicrous situation, but leaving yourself exposed to buying spot soymeal in Europe in August/September is a very dangerous game to play. With spot hi-pro prices now already in the GBP300's I wouldn't be surprised if things didn't have a 4 in front of them come mid-summer, if you can buy it at all that is.


July CBOT wheat finished at $5.93 ½, down 4 ¼ cents, Minneapolis closed higher. Acute planting delays still exist for US spring wheat, certainly unless it gets in the ground this next week, at the very least yields will be badly affected. Most estimates point to between 1-3 million acres that won't ever get planted. That's bullish for wheat, especially given the problems with winter wheat from some pretty appalling conditions the last few months. And it's not like the rest of the world is having a fantastic time either, certainly there are very real causes for concern in many of the major wheat exporting nations.