CBOT Closing Comments/Planting Progress


July soybeans closed at $11.85 ½, up 19 ½ cents November Soybeans at $10.42 ½, up 11 cents. Beans opened lower on dollar strength and weakness in crude oil, but both those markets turned around late in the session propelling beans to close near session highs. The fundamentals surrounding tight old crop stocks haven't changed, despite comments emanating from China that they may soon switch purchasing to Brazil. If that's true why haven't they done so already? The USDA said after the close that 48% of the soybean crop is in the ground, bang in line with expectations, and behind "normal" of 65% for this time of year. The slowest state is Illinois with just 12% in the ground, compared to 69% normally.


July CBOT wheat closed at $6.12, down ½ cent. After the close spring wheat planting came in at 79% done, exceeding the 70-75% expected, but well behind the five year average of 95% complete. It is widely expected that anything planted after May 31st is pretty mucha waste of time. With soybean prices where they are at the moment, there could be quite a few unplanted acres going into beans in 2009. Crop conditions rated good/excellent declined three points to 45%, whereas the trade had expected an increase of 1-2 points.


July corn finished at $4.27 ½, down 2 ¾ cents. Rains largely held off over the weekend allowing US farmers to get 82% of the crop planted, in line with expectations, although lagging 93% as the five year average. Some states are well behind, Illinois has 62% planted versus 96% normally, and Indiana is 55% compared to 89% on average. This will keep the market cautious over the next few months, although everybody will be mindful that last years even soggier crop finally produced some very impressive yields.