Has Anyone Seen My Panic Button?

The lowest estimate yet for this season's Argentine soybean crop comes from the Argentine Rural Confederation, or CRA, who now peg the 2009 soybean crop at just 30.5 MMT. That's a far cry from early season expectations of a record 50 MMT harvest, and highlights why China just keep coming back for more US soybeans. As well as quantity, quality seems also set to be an issue with Argentine beans this year, reducing US stocks to precariously low levels. Earlier this week Informa pegged August 31st US ending stocks at just 77 million bushels, significantly lower than the USDA's figure of 130 million released last week, and the smallest stocks since 1972. Stocks to usage meanwhile is the tightest on record at 4.3%. To put this into perspective, the Informa figure equates to just one week's supply, which is incredibly tight considering the late start to planting in the US.