Another Wheat Disaster Looming In Argentina

Argentine farmers have planted just 923,000 hectares of wheat so far this season, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.

To put that into perspective, the country normally plants wheat from the beginning of early May through to the end of July, so we are around 2/3rds of the way through the planting season. Plus they planted 4.2 million hectares last year that finally produced 8.3 MMT of wheat.

They've got less than a million hectares in, during the first 60% of the planting year. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange hope that they will plant 2.9 million hectares this year, so they need to get 2/3rds of the remaining unplanted acreage in in the last 1/3 of the timeframe open.

It's not going to happen is it.

Chuck into the mix the ongoing drought and the lack of satisfaction with government tinkerings with export restrictions, and "official" sources of production next year of 9-11 MMT look like total pie in the sky.

Production this year could easily fall to 4-5 MMT, maybe even less. Do the maths.