CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans closed at $12.25 ½, down 4 ½ cents. Soybeans made new weekly highs for the sixth week in a row this week, as old crop stocks remain at historically low levels. The USDA will tell us exactly how low they think on Wednesday, with the average trade guess as to what they will say being 114 million bushels, down 16 million from last month's estimate. A negative export sales figure on Thursday might help them make out a case that things won't get any tighter from here on in. I'm not convinced myself, especially with harvest likely running a good couple of weeks behind schedule. For new crop however the picture is undoubtedly bearish. US ending stocks will undoubtedly double for 2009/10, and Argentina can't have another disaster next time round can they??


July corn finished at $4.44, down 4 ½ cents. Corn had a volatile week but ended up closing higher for the sixth week in a row as uncertainty about eastern crop plantings. As well as reducing the planted acreage, the USDA may well also trim their yield estimate to take into account delayed plantings, when they issue their revised S&D and stocks estimates Wednesday. Before that we will have their planting progress and crop condition report Monday night. The dollar has been all over the place this week, which contributed to the volatility, although crude oil appears to have found a steady level around the $68/barrel mark.


July CBOT wheat settled at $6.23, down 12 ¼ cents. The USDA are expected to trim US winter wheat production in Wednesday's report by around 6-10 million bushels, from last months estimate of 1.502 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2008/09 and 2009/10 are also expected to be reduced slightly, although next week's reports are not likely to throw up any great surprises for wheat. Corn and beans are very much the central characters on Wednesday. Planting in Argentina remains well behind schedule with an estimated 30% reduction in seeded area likely, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal’s Exchange.