CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans closed at $12.43 ½, up 11 cents, November soybeans finished at $10.72 ½, up 20 ¾ cents. Beans were supported by higher crude, which closed above $70/barrel posting the highest close since Nov 4th, and a weaker dollar. The outlook for a very tight old crop ending stocks figure tomorrow from the USDA was also supportive for beans. The average trade estimate is for ending stocks to be trimmed to 114 million bushels. That’s less than a 2 week supply at current usage rates.


July CBOT wheat closed at $6.13 ¾, up 15 ¾ cents. Spring wheat plantings are just about finished with 4% of the crop remaining to be sown nationally, and 6% of the crop in top producing state of North Dakota unseeded. With new crop soybeans at $10+ almost all of the unplanted acres will surely get switched into beans. The USDA will probably lower it's production estimates for US wheat in 2009 and consequently lower 2009/10 ending stocks due to late plantings.


July corn closed at $4.44, up 9 cents. Weather conditions in the US continue to delay plantings, and things aren't likely to get much better over the next few days according to QT Weather. The impact of high soil moisture and cooler, wetter weather over the Corn Belt this season will likely impact the 2009/10 corn ending stocks which will be reported in Wednesday’s USDA report. Crude oil pushing above $70/barrel and a weaker US dollar were also supportive for corn today.