CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans closed at $12.46, up 2 ½ cents, November soybeans finished at $10.75 ¼, down 2 cents. The USDA lowered old crop US ending stocks to 110 million bushels, a little below the average trade guess and the tightest on a stocks to usage basis EVER. New crop ending stocks were also reduced to reflect the lower carry-in. No account seems to have been made for potentially larger plantings this year due to the weather delaying corn seedings. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report for soybeans are 200,000 to 400,000 MT. This report will be keenly scrutinised to see how sales are holding up for the twelve remaining weeks of the marketing year, and whether China are seen cancelling/rolling any US purchases.


July corn closed at $4.35 ¾, down 8 ¼ cents. The USDA decreased US 2009 corn yields by 2 bushels/acre in today’s report accounting for the planting delays to the corn crop in the eastern Corn Belt. No account was made for potentially lower plantings due to these weather delays however, that may have to come in next months report, which might be potentially bullish new crop. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are 500,000 to 850,000 MT.


July CBOT wheat closed at $5.96, down 17 ¾ cents. Today's USDA report was always likely to be more about soybeans and corn than wheat, yet the one main surprise from the USDA was raising 2009/10 ending stocks significantly above trade expectations. Winter wheat production was lowered, but reduced exports next season more than offset that. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s export sales are 200,000 to 300,000 MT.