CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans closed at $11.51 ½, down 27 ½ cents. A much drier forecast for the week ahead will help get the remainder of this outstanding soybean crop planted. Certainly for new-crop there isn't much bullish news about. The USDA is expected to confirm private analyst reports next week that there will be a record acreage of soybeans planted in the US this season, and by some considerable margin. Old crop still looks tight though, with China importing 3.519 MMT of beans in May, according to the government body there. A firmer dollar and weak crude did nothing to support soybeans today. This market looks very much like one that has peaked, although old-crop could still prove technical, I wouldn't touch new-crop with somebody else's barge pole.


July corn closed at $3.85 ¼, down 14 cents. There is not such a clearly defined argument to be bearish corn as beans. Some of the extra acres that the USDA are expected to find next week for beans will have come from corn. Until the USDA come out next week, we won't know how many. Next season's ending stocks are also likely to be revised lower, and the current season's exports continue to run along very well. From a demand point of view, IF the US government were to increase the ethanol blending mandate, then we could see a lot more off take coming in from that sector.


July CBOT wheat closed at $5.46, down 9 ¼ cents. Wheat is paddling a different canoe to corn and beans, this market topped out a whole lot earlier than the other two and is influenced by some quite different factors, not least a completely different growing season. Next week's forecast for significantly higher temperatures than what we have been seeing will advance the harvest. Reports coming out of Kansas are mixed for early winter wheat which was just 5% harvested as of Sunday, meanwhile Texas was at 53% harvested and Oklahoma was at 63% done.