CBOT Closing Comments


July soybeans closed at $11.79, up 27 ½ cents, and November soybeans at $10.04 ½, up 23 ½ cents. I can't understand why new-crop beans are so firm, all the indicators point to this market being massively overpriced. I can buy into the idea that old crop stocks are very tight, tighter even that the USDA portrays them, but for new-crop it's a very different story. US plantings will be the largest on record for 2009/10 and so will be the acreage in South America.


July corn closed at $3.89, up 3 ¾ cents. July corn prices have declined about 70 cents from the early June highs bouncing off the $3.80 technical support. Very hot and dry forecasts for most of the Midwest this week may stress newly planted corn. Next week's USDA report is likely to be bullish for corn, with anywhere from 1-2 million acres being switched into beans, according to most reports. Crude oil rallied a full 3 dollars a barrel from today’s lows, which also helped.


July CBOT wheat closed at $5.46 ¾, up just ¾ cent. Old crop stocks still weigh on the market, and the 2009/10m harvest is underway. Yields however seem to range from disappointing to "OK" so there could easily be some hefty downwards revisions is final production levels yet for the coming season. Australia's ABARE came out this week with a global production level 20 MMT below that of the USDA's most recent estimate. They also raised usage by 13 MMT from last month.