CBOT Crashes Lower Monday
CBOT grains crashed lower Monday under the heavy influence of weaker crude oil, metals and equities and a firmer US dollar.
Soybeans
July soybeans closed at $11.97, down 48 ½ cents, whilst November soybeans finished at $10.24 ¾, down 51 ¾ cents. Warmer weather will finally return to the US this week, aiding soybean plantings and crop development. The story for soybeans remains one of bullish very tight old-crop supplies, against bearish increased new-crop production. The inverse between July and Nov could widen significantly further. NOPA soybean crushings in May came in at 142.169 million bushels, sharply higher than trade estimates of 136.4-137.2 million bushels, further tightening old-crop supplies.
Corn
July corn closed at $4.06, down 19½ cents; December corn finished at $4.27 ¾, down 20 cents. Warm temperatures and normal precipitation are forecast for the Corn Belt in the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day weather forecasts, that is mildly bearish for corn. Of more influence today were the outside markets, with weakness in crude oil and a stronger dollar particularly adding to the bearish tone. On a bullish note, South Korea bought 275,000 MT of US corn and the USDA will likely drop it's acreage forecast by 1-3 million acres at the end of the month. Unlike soybeans, that could make the new-crop picture quite bullish for corn.
Wheat
July CBOT wheat ended at $5.75 ¼, down 9 ½ cents, making wheat, for once, the strongest leg of the complex. If you can call 9 ½ cents lower strong that is. The weather forecast this week and next is a little bearish, winter wheat harvesting should advance, and spring wheat crop development should get a boost. There are still some serious question marks over global wheat production however, with Oil World throwing another spanner in the works over the weekend with an Argentine planting forecast of just 2.8 million hectares for 2009. That implies that even with normal yields they will become a net importer of wheat next year, whereas as recently as 2007 they were the world's fifth largest exporter.
Soybeans
July soybeans closed at $11.97, down 48 ½ cents, whilst November soybeans finished at $10.24 ¾, down 51 ¾ cents. Warmer weather will finally return to the US this week, aiding soybean plantings and crop development. The story for soybeans remains one of bullish very tight old-crop supplies, against bearish increased new-crop production. The inverse between July and Nov could widen significantly further. NOPA soybean crushings in May came in at 142.169 million bushels, sharply higher than trade estimates of 136.4-137.2 million bushels, further tightening old-crop supplies.
Corn
July corn closed at $4.06, down 19½ cents; December corn finished at $4.27 ¾, down 20 cents. Warm temperatures and normal precipitation are forecast for the Corn Belt in the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day weather forecasts, that is mildly bearish for corn. Of more influence today were the outside markets, with weakness in crude oil and a stronger dollar particularly adding to the bearish tone. On a bullish note, South Korea bought 275,000 MT of US corn and the USDA will likely drop it's acreage forecast by 1-3 million acres at the end of the month. Unlike soybeans, that could make the new-crop picture quite bullish for corn.
Wheat
July CBOT wheat ended at $5.75 ¼, down 9 ½ cents, making wheat, for once, the strongest leg of the complex. If you can call 9 ½ cents lower strong that is. The weather forecast this week and next is a little bearish, winter wheat harvesting should advance, and spring wheat crop development should get a boost. There are still some serious question marks over global wheat production however, with Oil World throwing another spanner in the works over the weekend with an Argentine planting forecast of just 2.8 million hectares for 2009. That implies that even with normal yields they will become a net importer of wheat next year, whereas as recently as 2007 they were the world's fifth largest exporter.
