eCBOT Close, Early Call

The overnight grains closed lower, having traded under steady pressure throughout most of the morning. Beans closed 11 cents down on nearby July, and around 16-17 cents lower on new crop months. Corn finished around 10-12 cents lower and wheat down around 10 cents.

Private acreage estimates from Informa and Allendale released Friday are strongly bearish for beans, showing around 2.5-2.9 million more US acres being planted this season than the current US estimate.

Old crop stocks are still tight, and the delayed plantings could still potentially lead to some fireworks pre-harvest as availability potentially dwindles to a trickle.

For new crop though, things look undoubtedly bearish for beans unless we get a serious weather scare later in the summer. In addition to increased supplied from the US (which will likely double or even treble ending stocks for 209/10), Argentine farmers are expected to plant the highest acreage on record next season.

Punch-drunk and on the ropes from eighteen months of drought and crippled earnings from punitive export taxes, Argentine farmers are expected to have one last throw of the dice by planting 15-20% more soybeans than ever before next season.

They've got plenty of unplanted wheat acres to begin with, and will be keen to plant beans at these prices despite the export tax, assuming that they finally do get some decent rains before planting time comes around again. Planting wheat and corn are seen as riskier options as the government is far more likely to limit exports and depress local prices for these commodities.

US corn is a bit more of a conundrum, with Informa and Allendale miles apart on their acreage ideas. Informa seeing a sizable switch from corn into beans and Allendale saying the extra acres will come from double-cropping with winter wheat.

The wheat harvest in Kansas in underway, which will add a bit of pressure, as too will eastern Europe gearing up to get the wheat combines rolling.

Crude oil is back under $70/barrel, currently trading a tad over $68, and Wall Street is expected to open lower, which will add a bit of outside pressure.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 10 to 12 lower; soybeans called 10 to 15 lower; wheat called 8 to 10 lower.