USDA Report Reaction/Early Call

Yawn. The winter wheat production number and all the 2008/09 ending stocks figures were very close to the average trade expectation, if all slightly under.

The much awaited soybean ending stock figure was reduced to 110 million bushels (less than a fortnight's supply), with the ever-conservative USDA predictably freaking out at the very notion of dipping below 100.

For next season's carryout corn and beans again came in almost spot on what was expected, with only wheat coming in a little higher than anticipated.

For 2009/10 they dropped the corn yield by 2 bushels/acre reflecting late plantings. For wheat lower production was more than matched by reduced usage, giving us higher 2009/10 ending stocks.

With most of the numbers coming in bang in line with expectations it will probably only take half an hour for the markets to start looking ahead, and consign these figures to the history folder.

Tomorrow's weekly export sales is next in line for scrutiny. Will there be any Chinese cancellations for beans? Will corn sales hold up? Does anybody want US wheat? We'll find out tomorrow.

China's drought-stricken Heilongjiang province has had some rain, with potentially more to come say StormX.

In the US an abrupt shift may soon occur across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky from a spring with too much water (too cold in the Western Corn Belt and northern Plains) to experiencing the beginning of summer with stressing heat and lack of moisture, says Allen Motew of QT Weather. Indications are that summer will come in strong, being hot and dry for much of the Plains and western Corn Belt, he adds.

Meanwhile crude is steady at $71.33/barrel, Wall Street is expected to come in higher, metals are firmer and the dollar is weaker. All those outside influences point to higher trade today.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 4-5 cents higher, soybeans 3-4 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents higher.