World Grain Demand To Outstrip Production In 2009/10

After a bumper harvest in 2008/09 helping replenish dwindling global grain stocks, it's back to business as usual in 2009/10 with world demand outstripping supply by 15 MMT, say the International Grains Council.

Global grains production is projected at 1,721 MMT in 2009-10, compared with the demand of 1,736 MMT, say the IGC. The production number is down 61 MMT from output 1,782 MMT last year.

"World grains production is expected to fall short of use (demand) in 2009-10, eroding some of the gains in stocks achieved after the bumper 2008 harvests," they say.

There will be more use of grains for food and industrial purposes in 2009/10, particularly for ethanol production, the IGC said.

The IGC estimate global wheat output to be down by 5 per cent at 652 MMT (4 MMT higher than the current Nogger estimate - see table to the right) in 2009/10, compared with 687 MMT in 2008/09.

Grain production tightening, stocks diminishing, demand rising from biofuels sector, crude oil prices rising.

Deja vu anyone?